The betting market has adjusted the Rams' line down from -5.5 to -4.5 against the Commanders, but analysts still see value in Washington. The Rams' two straight wins came against an exhausted Raiders team and a winless Chargers squad, doing little to prove the team has returned to preseason Super Bowl form. Quarterback Matthew Stafford ranks 20th in EPA among qualified passers and is tied for the fourth-most interceptions with eight, while the roster continues to deal with injuries on both sides of the ball.
Conversely, the Commanders looked rejuvenated coming off their bye week, posting their most complete game of the season against Philadelphia. Despite a 2-4-1 record, Washington remains in the thick of the NFC East race.
In Denver, the Broncos improved to 5-0 in one-score games this season and 15-3 over the last two years after rallying to beat Kansas City. However, the team is winning in spite of rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who ranks 33rd in PFF grades among qualified QBs. Denver faces a tricky spot this week against Carolina, playing its 10th consecutive game with a bye week on deck, while the Panthers hold a rest advantage that has proven highly profitable league-wide.
Teams with extra rest are 29-9 straight up and 27-10-1 against the spread this season, marking the best ATS start since 1987. The Seahawks are favored by 8.5 points over Arizona after the line dropped from -12.5 following Sam Darnold's quad injury. Backup Drew Lock has actually outperformed Darnold statistically this season, ranking 13th in EPA per play to Darnold's 32nd, and previously beat the Cardinals 31-7 in Week 2.
Arizona has won three games outright as an underdog of at least seven points, a feat not seen since the 1995 Jaguars, but Gardner Minshew's recent success came against the league's worst defense in Dallas. This week, the Cardinals face a Seattle defense ranked second in Success Rate and fourth in EPA. The Cardinals are also 0-5 against the spread under Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald, failing to cover by an average of 12.4 points per game.
Sources: Las Vegas Review-Journal
Original reporting: Las Vegas Review-Journal →
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