With six Top 25 matchups on the Week 7 schedule, a Las Vegas Review-Journal handicapper is focusing on under-the-radar games and one SEC showdown. The writer likes Auburn getting 21 points at Georgia, noting the Tigers have a positive yards-per-play differential in SEC play despite an 0-2 conference record. Auburn lost to Florida by five and Tennessee by 10, but turnover issues — including two giveaways in plus territory against the Volunteers — proved costly. The handicapper expects Georgia to win but believes the Bulldogs could be due for a letdown after their emotional victory over Alabama, making the 21-point spread enough for Auburn to cover.
In the ACC, North Carolina is favored by 3.5 points over Duke in a rivalry the Tar Heels lost 32-25 last season. That game featured 12 UNC penalties for 103 yards and a 36-to-24 minute possession disadvantage. This year, North Carolina ranks second nationally in fewest penalty yards per game at 27.4, and the defense has improved while the running game has found traction. Duke ranks 21st nationally in yards per carry allowed but has surrendered nearly five yards per rush in two ACC games. The handicapper believes North Carolina may be the better team outright, with the hook on the spread adding value.
The writer also sees value fading Oregon State, which is favored by 16 points over Washington State. The handicapper's own line on the game is Oregon State minus-16, but the market has pushed the number higher. The Beavers rank eighth nationally with 7.27 yards per play behind Braden Atkinson and Jesse Legree, creating a significant offensive disparity that the handicapper believes has reached a crescendo in the betting market.
Sources: Las Vegas Review-Journal
Original reporting: Las Vegas Review-Journal →
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