The first College Football Playoff rankings have dominated conversation this week, but bettors should not let them cloud their judgment. The rankings are not reliable indicators of team strength at this stage and may actually serve as a useful fade tool, as recreational bettors tend to overvalue ranked teams.
Navy is favored in its matchup against Temple despite a recent rough stretch that included losses to Notre Dame, North Texas and UTSA — all potent offensive teams. The Midshipmen miss former defensive coordinator P.J. Volker, but the offense continues to thrive under Drew Cronic. Quarterback Jackson Gutierrez has rushed for nearly 1,000 yards with 13 touchdowns and thrown for seven scores since taking over in Week 2. He has topped 100 rushing yards in six of seven starts, and Temple's run defense has declined from 4.32 yards per carry allowed in September to 4.82 in October.
Temple ranks 116th nationally in defensive points per drive, a significant drop in class from the elite offenses Navy has faced. Notre Dame leads the nation in offensive points per drive at 4.02, while North Texas ranks fourth and UTSA 30th. Navy's offense should operate effectively against a much weaker Temple defense.
San Jose State is also drawing attention as a home favorite against Northern Illinois. The Spartans rank 41st nationally in non-garbage-time defensive points per drive at 1.9, while the Huskies have allowed more than four points per drive — second worst in the country. Northern Illinois has lost three Mountain West games by 18 points or more and ranks near the bottom nationally in net points per drive.
With one of the nation's weakest defenses visiting, San Jose State has an opportunity to improve offensively. The Spartans rank just 99th in net points per drive despite their defensive success, but this matchup could allow them to show progress on that side of the ball.
Sources: Las Vegas Review-Journal
Original reporting: Las Vegas Review-Journal →
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