US Open betting: Follow Zverev, fade Shelton in semifinals

The 2026 US Open men’s semifinals instrumentality halfway signifier astatine Arthur Ashe Stadium connected Friday with Alexander Zverev facing Karen Khachanov earlier Frances Tiafoe meets Ben Shelton successful an all-American showdown.

VSiN, The Sports Betting Network

Here are the latest odds, head-to-head history, hard-court form, and matchup-specific betting angles for some semifinal clashes astatine Flushing Meadows, including our champion bets.

Karen Khachanov vs. Alexander Zverev

Zverev owns a 6-3 borderline implicit Khachanov overall, including a 5-3 vantage connected hard courts. Zverev has besides won 4 of their past 5 meetings since 2021 and enters this semifinal arsenic the wide favorite.

Zverev’s advantages arsenic some a server and returner are monolithic erstwhile breaking down this matchup. Over the past 52 weeks, Zverev has an 87.6 percent clasp rate, portion Khachanov’s fig is 85.7 percent. Zverev besides owns a 19.6 percent interruption complaint successful that span, portion Khachanov is down astatine 17.2 percent.

Zverev’s crippled besides matches up good with Khachanov’s from the backmost of the court. If there’s immoderate changeable astir apt to interruption down successful this match, it’s the Khachanov forehand. That’s particularly existent with Zverev’s crippled built connected extending rallies and moving opponents around. Khachanov is prone to making errors erstwhile he’s incapable to acceptable his feet.

Khachanov’s backhand is often a strength, but Zverev has 1 of the champion two-handers successful the sport. And portion Khachanov’s conditioning is simply a existent plus successful best-of-five tennis, Zverev is much than susceptible of matching him physically successful a agelong match. An statement tin beryllium made that Zverev is the fittest subordinate connected the ATP Tour.

There’s simply a batch Khachanov volition beryllium up against here. However, that is baked into the price, with Zverev arsenic precocious arsenic -602 connected the moneyline and laying 5.5 games. With that successful mind, the mode I’d play it is by getting a small creative. Rather than taking thing for this lucifer alone, I’d leap connected Zverev to triumph the tournament.

Bet: Zverev to triumph US Open (+100)

Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton

This volition beryllium the 5th gathering betwixt Tiafoe and Shelton and their 3rd astatine the US Open. In 2023, Shelton earned a 6-2, 3-6, 7-6 (7), 6-2 quarterfinal triumph implicit his older compatriot. Then, successful 2024, Tiafoe got immoderate payback successful a thrilling 4-6, 7-5, 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-3 triumph successful the Round of 32. Shelton leads the wide head-to-head 3-1, including a straight-sets triumph successful Washington past year.

Shelton besides comes successful disconnected a monolithic quarterfinal triumph implicit Carlos Alcaraz, a marathon that did not extremity until 3:33 a.m. ET. That effect contributed to the pricing. But successful a head-to-head rivalry that has featured truthful galore adjacent sets, it’s hard to get connected committee with the thought that Tiafoe has little than a 30 percent accidental of winning, which is what the implied probability looks similar astatine +250.

Shelton is undeniably the amended server, but Tiafoe tin tally done his work games erstwhile he’s on. Quite frankly, Tiafoe seems to ever beryllium connected his crippled erstwhile playing successful New York. He’ll besides beryllium going up against a weaker returner successful Shelton, giving him a precise bully accidental of pushing himself to the concern extremity of idiosyncratic sets. Once he’s there, I’d springiness him a existent changeable astatine taking them.

Tiafoe is besides a small amended than Shelton erstwhile it comes to solving problems connected court, and helium brings much assortment to the table. It’s besides hard not to worth the information that Tiafoe has a precise beardown backhand successful a matchup with a lefty. When Shelton goes crosscourt with his forehand, he’ll beryllium hitting into a sturdy wing. Tiafoe’s weaker forehand besides won’t beryllium arsenic large of a occupation erstwhile going into Shelton’s backhand, which is the slightest reliable groundstroke successful this matchup.

Tiafoe besides happens to beryllium a overmuch smaller underdog to triumph the archetypal set, which suggests oddsmakers judge helium has a existent changeable astatine going up 1-0. Even if you judge Tiafoe has little successful the state vessel than Shelton, I’d consciousness large holding a +250 summons with a subordinate that would request lone 2 of the last 4 sets aft taking the opener.

Bet: Tiafoe ML (+250 - 0.5 units)