NFL betting: Browns follow coaching trends while Falcons face hurdles

These are a fewer of Steve Makinen’s NFL Week 1 champion bets. Find his implicit card, further betting analysis, and much NFL sum astatine the VSiN website.

VSiN, The Sports Betting Network

Browns +8½ astatine Jaguars

Public sentiment suggests bettors deliberation Jacksonville volition stay a squad connected the emergence and Cleveland volition beryllium arsenic atrocious arsenic ever. The nationalist is seldom right, peculiarly aboriginal successful the season, and this crippled has the aforesaid consciousness arsenic past year’s Raiders-Patriots Week 1 tilt, erstwhile nary 1 gave Las Vegas overmuch of a shot.

There are a batch of Browns violative players excited for the caller play nether Todd Monken. He led the Ravens discourtesy implicit the past 3 seasons and enactment up large numbers. It’s hard to spot an discourtesy that scored much than 20 points conscionable doubly successful its last 10 games past season, but the caller authorities gives crushed for hope. Cleveland besides turns backmost to a seasoned QB who has had occurrence erstwhile starting regularly, Deshaun Watson. Jacksonville, meanwhile, whitethorn person caught lightning successful a vessel past season.

I’m turning to a mates of systems here. NFL opening-week roadworthy teams that won betwixt 4 and six games the anterior play are 56-24-5 ATS (70 percent) since 2004. This is, of course, the Browns. Also, laying large points is seldom a bully thought successful a Week 1 NFL contest. Underdogs of 6.5 points oregon much mightiness beryllium conscionable 11-34-1 SU, but they are 32-13-1 ATS (71.1 percent) successful Week 1 since 2013.

There is besides 78 percent of the grip astatine DraftKings connected Jacksonville. Over the past 3 years, erstwhile a “super-majority” grip of 77 percent oregon higher got down an NFL favourite of 6.5 points oregon more, those teams went conscionable 13-25 ATS (34.2 percent) for -14.5 units and an ROI of -38.2 percent.

Steelers -3½ vs. Falcons

You deliberation that successful Week 1, oddsmakers acceptable up lines successful what could beryllium trap spots? To me, this Pittsburgh enactment feels similar 1 of those games wherever they are baiting you to instrumentality the Falcons due to the fact that they are getting “more than a tract goal.”

In the Mike Tomlin years, Pittsburgh was usually a squad I didn’t similar to trust connected arsenic a location favourite due to the fact that the Steelers person consistently produced successful the underdog role. However, nether Tomlin, determination was a unusual dynamic with lines acceptable astatine precisely -3.5 astatine home. Pittsburgh was 6-1 SU and ATS successful those games since 2016, with an mean triumph borderline of 19.8 PPG. One of those wins came against Atlanta successful 2018, a 41-17 decision. That is portion of a five-game SU and ATS winning streak for the Steelers successful head-to-head play.

Do you deliberation that volition alteration with a caller manager and a seasoned roster? I don’t deliberation so. Retread coaches person been much proficient astatine covering spreads astatine location since 2020: 59-52 ATS (53.2 percent) astatine location versus 57-60 ATS (48.7 percent) connected the roadworthy oregon astatine neutral sites. Also, the reunion of Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers should beryllium amusive to watch.

On the different sideline, Atlanta is besides opening a caller epoch nether Kevin Stefanski, who is looking to dilatory a inclination that shows the Falcons astatine 18-36 ATS (33.3 percent) against non-conference foes since 2014. Stefanski has named Tua Tagovailoa the starter. I deliberation that limits an discourtesy loaded with coagulated young accomplishment players.

Texans +1½ vs. Bills

It was a unusual inclination for Buffalo successful the Sean McDermott era. The Bills utilized to fare good against the league’s apical defenses, going 28-13 SU and 29-16 ATS against teams allowing 19 points per crippled oregon less since 2016. What was unusual was however severely the Texans and their elite defence bushed up connected Josh Allen successful their gathering past year. He was sacked 8 times, and Buffalo turned it implicit 3 times.

Oddsmakers person done caller manager Joe Brady nary favors by establishing Buffalo arsenic a roadworthy favorite. As favorites of 4 points oregon fewer, rookie coaches person gone 97-73 SU but 71-88-10 ATS (44.7 percent) implicit the past decade.

Offense besides doesn’t thin to question good from play to season. Teams that averaged much than 26 PPG successful the anterior play are 27-41 ATS (39.7 percent) successful Week 1 of the follow-up run erstwhile not facing different high-scoring squad since 2013. Strong defence carries implicit better: teams that allowed less than 20 PPG the anterior play are 30-10 SU and 27-13 ATS (67.5 percent) successful that aforesaid spot since 2017.

With location teams 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS successful the past 8 Bills-Texans meetings, I’ll look for a insignificant upset here.