Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026 | 2 a.m.
Right erstwhile fans were heavy into bemoaning the decease of chaos successful assemblage shot with the news of an imminent 24-team playoff bracket past week, the athletics reminded everyone however volatile it remains astatine the core.
By immoderate measures, Week 7 of the existent play coiled up the craziest slate successful the past of assemblage football's regular season. Saturday marked the archetypal clip ever that 5 of the apical 7 teams successful the Associated Press’ apical 25 canvass mislaid successful the aforesaid day.
It was besides the archetypal clip successful 30 years that Georgia (at the clip ranked No. 1), Alabama (No. 6) and Texas (No. 7) each mislaid successful the aforesaid day.
A $100 moneyline parlay of Auburn to apical Georgia, Tennessee to bushed Alabama and Florida to upset Texas would person paid conscionable abbreviated of $17,000 based connected closing likelihood astatine Circa Sports. Throw successful BYU to sound disconnected then-No. 2 Notre Dame, and the payout would person changeable up to a small little than $69,000.
That means the betting marketplace implied astir a 0.15% accidental each those powers would autumn wrong a span of hours. Oh, and No. 3 Miami hardly survived rival Florida State contempt a pregame implied triumph probability of astir 93% per the market.
It made for a thrilling week, but a cynic could inactive retort that nary of the aforementioned favorites that fell had their seasons ruined. Georgia, Notre Dame and Alabama are each inactive odds-on favourite to scope what present appears to beryllium the past 12-team playoff tract astatine the extremity of this season.
Texas is present a virtual coinflip astatine +120 (i.e. risking $100 to triumph $100) to scope the field.
Week 7 volition beryllium hard to top, but the likelihood favour Week 8 bringing much upheaval. On paper, this week’s games are collectively the closest of the twelvemonth to this point, by far.
As galore arsenic 32 of 57 Football Bowl Subdivision games had a constituent dispersed of a touchdown oregon little astatine times Monday. Most of the lines connected the remaining 44% of games are astir 10-14 points.
The highest likelihood connected immoderate crippled each week are the 20.5 points Miami is laying against Pittsburgh.
Get acceptable for much surprises. Regardless of however the postseason is formatted, that’s what assemblage shot ever provides.
Read connected for my point-spread handicaps of each game.Lines are the champion presently disposable successful Las Vegas connected the chosen side. Picks are labeled successful 1 of 3 assurance categories — plays, leans and guesses. The grounds for the twelvemonth picking each crippled stands astatine 191-194-5 (69-62-1 connected plays, 66-69-2 connected leans and 56-63-2 connected guesses).
Big Games
Pittsburgh +20.5 astatine Miami, over/under: 50.5. All past week’s carnage resulted successful Miami reaching the apical spot successful the polls for the archetypal clip successful 24 years, which traditionally represents a merchantability awesome connected a team. But the Hurricanes can’t beryllium overmuch sloppier than successful past week’s 43-35 double-overtime flight against Florida State arsenic 20.5-point favorites. This week’s enactment is identical, and there’s an statement to beryllium made that Florida State is stronger than Pittsburgh with backup freshman backmost Corey Dailey present down center. Guess: Miami -20.5.
Indiana -7.5 astatine Michigan, over/under: 41. The endowment astir erstwhile five-star enlistee backmost Bryce Underwood has shone done each play for Michigan. The $12 cardinal antheral — that’s the reported worthy of the name, representation and likeness (NIL) woody Underwood signed with the Wolverines — conscionable hasn’t done it justice. Expect an uptick present that manager Kyle Whittingham has moved to backup Tommy Carr successful what mightiness beryllium an overdue change. Play: Michigan +7.5.
LSU -8.5 astatine Auburn, implicit 49.5. Georgia played 1 of its worst games successful years with a -3 turnover margin, but Auburn inactive hardly edged its oldest Deep South rival past week portion getting outgained by 2 nett yards per play. The terms this week is getting costly aft LSU opened arsenic debased arsenic -6.5, but this is simply a mismatch from a roster prime standpoint. Play: LSU -8.5.
Tennessee +2.5 astatine South Carolina, over/under: 50.5. In 1 of the biggest deltas I’ve seen successful years, I made Tennessee a 3.5-point favourite successful this game. That whitethorn marque it dependable similar Tennessee should beryllium my biggest stake of the twelvemonth but, successful each actuality, it should acceptable disconnected conscionable arsenic galore alarm bells. The betting marketplace is ne'er going to beryllium disconnected 6 points astatine this constituent of the season. So, I’ll workout immoderate caution but inactive enactment spot successful the thought that Tennessee’s defence is the champion halt portion South Carolina’s resurgent discourtesy has encountered this season. Play: Tennessee +2.5.
Iowa -7 astatine Minnesota, over/under: 41. Is Iowa’s discourtesy going to support the surge it’s showed successful a constricted clip truthful acold since turning to Jeremy Hecklinski astatine quarterback? The enactment says so, but it’s OK to privation the Hawkeyes to beryllium it earlier laying a large terms with what’s historically been an inexplosive offense. Minnesota’s defence rates No. 12 successful the federation successful expected points added (EPA) per play defence and should beryllium stingy with the Floyd of Rosedale rivalry trophy astatine stake. Play: Minnesota +7.
Ole Miss +3.5 astatine Texas, over/under: 52.5. There’s nary excusing Texas for a two-game losing streak fixed the expected national-high successful NIL spending connected its roster, but it was unlucky successful some games by the underlying statistic and should beryllium amended going forward. The Longhorns outgained the Sooners and Gators by an mean of astir 2 nett yards per play. Texas manager Steve Sarkisian has hinted astatine large changes arsenic a effect to the disappointment, which could marque it pugnacious to hole for. If the enactment hits -3, Texas is worthy firing on. Lean: Texas -3.5.
USC -3.5 astatine Wisconsin, over/under: 49. Wisconsin couldn’t halt taking wealth past week, closing arsenic a 1.5-point underdog up of a 17-7 nonaccomplishment astatine UCLA. Now enactment won’t halt coming against the Badgers aft this enactment opened arsenic debased arsenic a pick’em. All the Trojans emotion mightiness beryllium an overreaction because, contempt past week’s flip, the Badgers are overmuch improved and should clasp an vantage astatine the enactment of scrimmage. Play: Wisconsin +3.5.
Houston +6.5 astatine Utah, over/under: 56.5. Rice-Eccles Stadium is notoriously a hard venue to sojourn astatine night, but those factors tin beryllium minimized with a disciplined, well-coached team. Few teams successful the federation are better-coached than the Cougars with Willie Fritz. Utah besides hasn’t seen an discourtesy adjacent this threatening. The Cougars complaint 5th successful the federation by violative EPA per play. Play: Houston +6.5.
Big Plays
Texas Tech -10.5 astatine Cincinnati, over/under: 57. Texas Tech is yet pointing up with backmost Will Hammond settling successful and starring the Red Raiders to 3 consecutive covers aft starting the twelvemonth 0-3 against the spread. Cincinnati is headed the different absorption with 2 consecutive losses some straight-up and against the dispersed down a susceptible defence and up-and-down offense. Play: Texas Tech -10.5.
BYU -6.5 astatine UCF, over/under: 43.5. Patiently hold for a +7 to look but, successful the meantime, a +225 sensation connected the moneyline for UCF to triumph outright mightiness suffice. Betting against BYU isn’t adjacent truly astir fading it disconnected 1 of the biggest victories successful schoolhouse past but alternatively UCF getting backmost starting backmost Alonza Barnett and looking crippled up front. Play: UCF +6.5.
Michigan State +14 astatine UCLA, over/under: 44. Doubting UCLA has done irreparable harm to the column’s bottommost enactment arsenic it’s present 6-0 against the spread. New backmost Ty Dieffenbach debuted good arsenic a starter against Wisconsin but inactive limits the Bruins’ ceiling. Michigan State manager Pat Fitzgerald’s champion plus mightiness beryllium his antiaircraft game-planning, truthful helium should beryllium capable to dilatory down Dieffenbach capable to enactment wrong this bloated number. Play: Michigan State +14.
Boise State -13 astatine Washington State, over/under: 51. Washington State has failed to impressment nether caller manager Kirby Moore, ranking No. 127 successful the federation by EPA per play. Boise State, which is No. 27 by the aforesaid measure, is the reliable motor that keeps chugging on and mightiness beryllium other revved up this week coming disconnected a well-timed bye week wherever it presumably chopped into its wounded list. Play: Boise State -13.
Virginia Tech +3 astatine Clemson, over/under: 49. This enactment opened arsenic precocious arsenic Virginia Tech -2, which felt rich, but it’s present swung excessively acold the different way. The Hokies person the borderline astatine backmost with inferior Ethan Grunkemeyer against Clemson freshman Tait Reynolds. That doesn’t mean everything, considering Clemson has the stronger roster astir its passer, but it’s capable for a nibble connected the underdog. Play: Virginia Tech +3.
Iowa State +10 astatine Arizona, over/under: 51. Sell precocious connected Arizona, which has covered 2 successful a enactment but inactive has an iffy roster and injuries. The Wildcats person besides faced an iffy caller acceptable of opposing defenses portion Iowa State has astatine slightest proven competent connected that side. Play: Iowa State +10.
Other games
Plays
Texas State -12 vs. Utah State
Hawaii -4 astatine Northern Illinois
Kentucky -11.5 vs. Vanderbilt
Sam Houston +3.5 vs. New Mexico State
Stanford +7 vs. NC State
Western Michigan +3.5 astatine Toledo
UTSA -2.5 astatine Tulane
Old Dominion +13 astatine Louisiana Tech
Leans
Oklahoma -3.5 astatine Mississippi State
Navy +2.5 vs. North Texas
Middle Tennessee +10.5 astatine Florida International
Southern Miss +11 vs. Louisiana
Buffalo -3.5 vs. Bowling Green
North Carolina -8.5 vs. Syracuse
Illinois +9 vs. Oregon
Wyoming +6 vs. Air Force
Virginia -1.5 vs. Duke
West Virginia +8.5 astatine TCU
Oklahoma State -13 vs. Colorado
San Jose State +5.5 astatine UNR
Northwestern -16 vs. Rutgers
Boston College +4.5 astatine Georgia Tech
Eastern Michigan +11 astatine Ohio
UL Monroe +15.5 astatine Troy
Guesses
Alabama -14.5 vs. Texas A&M
Sacramento State +14 vs. Ball State
New Mexico -4.5 vs. North Dakota State
Florida Atlantic -9.5 vs. Rice
Delaware -2.5 vs. Missouri State
James Madison -10.5 astatine Appalachian State
Liberty -10.5 astatine Kennesaw State
Akron +3 astatine Kent State
Memphis -10.5 vs. East Carolina
Arkansas State +2.5 vs. Georgia State
South Alabama -2.5 astatine Marshall
Connecticut -14.5 vs. Massachusetts
Kansas State -3.5 astatine Arizona State
Tulsa -1 vs. Army
Baylor -2.5 astatine Kansas
SMU -18.5 vs. California
Miami (Ohio) -2.5 astatine Central Michigan
San Diego State -2.5 astatine Colorado State
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