Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2026 | 2 a.m.
Skepticism surrounded Indiana for the past 2 years arsenic the losingest programme successful assemblage shot past climbed to the apical of the sport.
The infinitesimal erstwhile the Hoosiers whitethorn person go wholly undeniable was last year’s Big Ten Championship Game erstwhile they held connected to bushed Ohio State 13-10 arsenic 6-point underdogs.
It’s a triumph that could person travel a batch easier if lone Indiana had an reply for Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith, who racked up 8 catches for 144 receiving yards successful the game.
Indiana’s struggles with the 6-foot-4, 222-pound superstar are a forgivable discourtesy though.
No 1 knows what to bash with Smith including section bookmakers and bettors.
The inferior is crushing the contention truthful thoroughly this twelvemonth with 48 catches for 916 yards and 11 touchdowns that he’s moved into the favourite successful the 2 biggest individual-player assemblage shot markets.
Smith is present arsenic precocious arsenic -250 (i.e. risking $250 to triumph $100) to triumph the Heisman Trophy and +220 (i.e. risking $100 to triumph $220) to beryllium taken archetypal wide successful the 2027 NFL Draft.
Indiana gets its 3rd stab astatine Ohio State and Smith — helium had 3 catches for 34 yards successful a 38-15 Buckeyes triumph arsenic a freshman successful 2024 against the Hoosiers — successful the biggest crippled of Week 7. The victor volition travel retired a large favourite to triumph the Big Ten Championship.
Smith is coming disconnected 1 of his quietest games of the twelvemonth but 1 wherever helium inactive hauled successful 4 catches for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns successful a 45-16 Ohio State triumph implicit Maryland arsenic 35-point favorites. The 2 agelong touchdowns were capable to spot his Heisman probability much than treble arsenic helium entered the crippled astir -110 depending connected the sportsbook to assertion the award.
His ascent successful some the Heisman and NFL Draft markets has been assisted by this year’s backmost people not rather surviving up to the hype truthful far. Texas’ Arch Manning and Oregon’s Dante Moore person mostly disappointed aft coming successful arsenic the statement apical 2 NFL Draft prospects.
Alabama’s Keelon Russell was the closest Heisman hopeful a week ago, but his so-so show successful a nonaccomplishment from Georgia sent his likelihood from arsenic debased arsenic 5-to-1 and 2nd down Smith to arsenic precocious arsenic a 16-to-1 sixth choice.
There’s present a large spread betwixt Smith and the remainder of the candidates. His biggest contention whitethorn present travel from the victor of a Week 10 crippled betwixt Notre Dame and Miami arsenic their quarterbacks.
The Irish’s CJ Carr and the Hurricanes’ Darian Mensah are arsenic debased arsenic 10-to-1 and 8-to-1, respectively.
It’s up to Indiana to enactment a damper successful Smith’s sprint up the futures board. It’s 1 happening the Hoosiers couldn’t propulsion disconnected arsenic portion of past year’s undefeated nationalist title season, but possibly they’re amended equipped now.
Read beneath for my point-spread handicap of Ohio State astatine Indiana arsenic good arsenic each different Football Bowl Subdivision game. Lines are the champion presently disposable successful Las Vegas connected the chosen side. Picks are labeled successful 1 of 3 assurance categories – plays, leans and guesses. The grounds for the twelvemonth picking each crippled stands astatine 159-168-4 (60-52 connected plays, 56-60-2 connected leans and 43-56-2 connected guesses).
Big Games
Ohio State -4 astatine Indiana, over/under: 50.5. The betting marketplace has downgraded Indiana each play for its 1-4 against the dispersed start, but opponents similar Northwestern and North Texas person turned retired overmuch amended than priced erstwhile the Hoosiers faced them. Smith casts a haunting shadiness implicit everything, but there’s nary coaching unit worthy trusting much than Indiana’s nether Curt Cignetti to formed the close antiaircraft gameplan to support the people close. This enactment shouldn’t beryllium much than a tract goal. Play: Indiana +4.
Florida +11.5 astatine Texas, over/under: 52. The Gators’ brightest infinitesimal past play was knocking disconnected Texas 29-21 arsenic 5.5-point underdogs, and they’re amended this twelvemonth contempt a existent two-game losing streak with galore of the cardinal players from that triumph back. Florida shouldn’t beryllium capable to bushed Texas successful back-to-back years, but the latter’s belabored discourtesy is simply a detriment to laying ample constituent spreads. Lean: Florida +11.5.
Mississippi State +11.5 astatine LSU, over/under: 59. Mississippi State’s defence had been hardly holding it unneurotic and yet snapped successful a 56-23 nonaccomplishment to Alabama arsenic 5.5-point underdogs successful its past game. Now the discourtesy whitethorn gaffe excessively with superstar backmost Kamario Taylor reportedly banged up, though expected to play. The fig is astir close if Taylor is afloat healthy, but that’s the lone the Mississippi State discourtesy volition support up. Guess: LSU -11.5.
Alabama -8.5 astatine Tennessee, over/under: 52.5. For the 2nd consecutive week, aboriginal wealth volition not halt flooding successful connected Alabama — sending this enactment flying from opening arsenic debased arsenic -6.5. The steam didn’t wage disconnected against Georgia, which edged Alabama 20-17 arsenic 1.5-point underdogs, and whitethorn not again versus an improved Tennessee side. The last people of past week’s 24-17 triumph implicit Arkansas arsenic 14-point favourite whitethorn not person displayed Tennessee’s advancement but the second dominated much comfortably by the statistics. Play: Tennessee +8.5.
Missouri +5.5 astatine Ole Miss, over/under: 59.5. This enactment is much than fair, if not a small short, based strictly connected information from the archetypal six weeks of this season. But Ole Miss’ imaginable is truthful overmuch higher arsenic seen by past play erstwhile it was seconds distant from reaching the College Football Playoff title game. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss appears to beryllium backmost successful that form, making it hard to prime against him successful a crippled forecast arsenic a shootout. Lean: Ole Miss -5.5.
Notre Dame -9.5 astatine BYU, over/under: 47. The enactment opened arsenic precocious arsenic Notre Dame -13.5, which was demonstrably excessively high. Unfortunately, it lone took astir 24 hours for bettors to sound it down to a much fitting terms tag. Notre Dame sits archetypal successful the federation by virtually each all-encompassing statistical metric, and the marketplace sometimes struggles to accurately quantify existent outlier teams. It’s excessively aboriginal to accidental if the Irish merit that description, particularly fixed their schedule, but they conscionable might. Guess: Notre Dame -9.5.
Wisconsin +3.5 astatine UCLA, over/under: 47. UCLA backmost Nico Iamaleava doesn’t person the champion estimation successful assemblage shot circles, but helium had made strides this play and remains a overmuch amended enactment than backups Ty Dieffenbach and Madden Iamaleava. That’s the brace the Bruins are down to with Nico suffering a season-ending ankle injury. With the overmuch surer stake astatine backmost successful Colton Joseph, Wisconsin arguably should beryllium favored. Play: Wisconsin +3.5.
Oklahoma State +4.5 astatine Houston, over/under: 61. Oklahoma State has been unbelievable since its inexplicable, season-opening nonaccomplishment to Tulsa. Houston mightiness beryllium much coagulated crossed the roster, but Oklahoma State has the higher upside with big-play weapons similar Justin Bowick, Wyatt Young and Ayo Adeyi. Bet connected the upside astatine much than a tract goal.Lean: Oklahoma State +4.5.
Big Plays
Western Kentucky -1.5 astatine Sam Houston, over/under: 53. The rosters are of a akin quality, leaving 2 consecutive blowout losses the lone reasons the Bearkats are sitting arsenic a location underdog. But they were against Liberty and Texas Tech. Western Kentucky is simply a large measurement down. Play: Sam Houston +1.5.
Memphis -6.5 astatine Tulane, over/under: 53. Let’s support riding Memphis arsenic agelong arsenic the betting marketplace is expressing immoderate reservation, which it’s doing by keeping this enactment astatine oregon beneath a touchdown. Tulane’s unreserved defence is simply a sieve and it gives up excessively galore large plays overall. That should marque for a tract time for big-armed Memphis backmost Marcus Stokes and elusive moving backmost Jaylin Carter. Play: Memphis -6.5.
UNLV +1.5 astatine Air Force, over/under: 47.5. Air Force quieted concerns with losing backmost Liam Szarka for the play arsenic backup Kemper Hodges stepped successful with nary discernable downturn successful a 28-7 triumph implicit Northern Illinois arsenic 7-point favorites. But UNLV is astatine a antithetic level, particularly present with the defence looking improved aft stymying North Dakota State successful a 13-7 triumph arsenic 3-point underdogs. Play: UNLV +1.5.
Penn State +6.5 astatine Michigan, over/under: 42. These teams are adjacent reflector images of each other, entering this crippled connected losing streaks caused by dreadful discourtesy but having already banked 3 wins apiece done sturdy defense. Michigan’s defence is simply a spot much imposing, to beryllium fair, but there’s not a ample capable quality to merit this large of a constituent spread. Play: Penn State +6.5.
Louisville -14.5 astatine Syracuse, over/under: 56. Injuries person wholly derailed the Syracuse play again arsenic it mightiness beryllium down to a fourth-string backmost unless Steve Angeli plays done Achilles soreness aft missing the past 2 games. Angelli struggled successful constricted enactment this play anyway. The enactment moved 3 points from opening towards Louisville but should person gone further successful that direction. Play: Louisville -14.5.
Utah -15 astatine Colorado, over/under: 49.5. One of Colorado’s biggest, oregon only, edges is its location tract astatine elevation but that doesn’t substance to Utah with its location Rice-Eccles Stadium lone somewhat little beneath oversea level than Folsom Field. No wonderment the Utes person won six of 8 astatine Colorado since this accepted rival bid was revived successful 2012. Colorado is simply a accordant messiness and has failed to screen 4 successful a enactment with nary crushed to judge the skid volition halt against what looks similar the champion squad successful the Big 12. Play: Utah -15.
Other Games
Play: Georgia State +13 astatine James Madison
Play: Louisiana Tech -14 astatine UL Monroe
Play: Ohio -14 astatine Sacramento State
Play: Coastal Carolina +1.5 vs. Appalachian State
Play: Washington +3.5 astatine Purdue
Play: Jacksonville State -2.5 vs. Florida International
Play: Army -2.5 vs. Florida Atlantic
Play: Akron +10.5 astatine Miami (Ohio)
Play: Arizona State +14.5 astatine Texas Tech
Play: South Florida -20 vs. Kent State
Play: UNR +16 astatine North Dakota State
Lean: Duke -3 vs. North Carolina
Lean: Arkansas +6.5 astatine Vanderbilt
Lean: UTSA -6.5 vs. Navy
Lean: UTEP +7.5 vs. San Jose State
Lean: Oregon State -17.5 vs. Washington State
Lean: Maryland -6 vs. Rutgers
Lean: Bowling Green -7 vs. Ball State
Lean: Miami -21 vs. Florida State
Lean: Fresno State -7 astatine Colorado State
Lean: Eastern Michigan +6 vs. Toledo
Lean: Delaware -1 astatine Middle Tennessee
Lean: West Virginia -2 vs. Cincinnati
Lean: Kentucky +7 astatine Oklahoma
Lean: Nebraska +8.5 astatine Oregon
Lean: Auburn +21 astatine Georgia
Lean: UAB +4.5 vs. East Carolina
Guess: Virginia Tech -6.5 vs. Georgia Tech
Guess: California +10 vs. Wake Forest
Guess: Wyoming -7.5 vs. Northern Illinois
Guess: UMass +6 astatine Buffalo
Guess: Missouri State +3.5 vs. Kennesaw State
Guess: Colorado State +14 astatine Texas State
Guess: Georgia Southern -4 astatine Old Dominion
Guess: Michigan State +7.5 vs. Northwestern
Guess: TCU +6 astatine Baylor
Guess: Kansas State -4.5 vs. Kansas
Guess: Boston College +6.5 vs. Pittsburgh
Guess: Western Michigan -6.5 astatine Central Michigan
Guess: Troy +4.5 astatine Louisiana
Guess: Arkansas State -6.5 astatine Southern Miss
Guess: Hawaii +14.5 vs. New Mexico
Guess: SMU -8.5 vs. Virginia
Guess: Temple -21.5 vs. Charlotte
Guess: Rice +4.5 vs. Tulsa
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