CFB betting: Weather will impact Liberty-Coastal Carolina total

September 23, 2026 - 12:54 pm By Adam Burke, VSiN The most recent meeting between Liberty and Coastal Carolina came in the 2020 Cure Bowl, a game shaped by COVID‑19 disruptions. Malik Willis led Liberty to a 37‑34 overtime victory, rushing for four touchdowns, while Grayson McCall accounted for four total touchdowns for the Chanticleers. Entering Week 4, Liberty arrives after a narrow win over FCS Gardner‑Webb two weeks prior and a dominant 51‑15 triumph against Ball State. Coastal Carolina has yet to defeat an FBS opponent this season, losing close contests to West Virginia and Delaware, with a blowout win over FCS Fordham sandwiched between. The Thursday night matchup lists Liberty as a slight road favorite, with the over/under set in the low 50s. Weather is the primary concern. A storm is forecast to develop along the East Coast and affect the Northeast through the weekend, but remnants could reach Conway, South Carolina, on Thursday evening. Rain is expected early, with wind gusts potentially reaching 25 mph overnight. Conditions remain fluid, and the final total may shift as kickoff nears. Under first‑year head coach Jamey Chadwell, Liberty continues to rely heavily on the ground game. The program added Wake Forest transfer Deshawn Purdie and former Army standout Kanye Udoh this season. Udoh has recorded just six carries in the first three games, hampered by competition from Florida State’s Kam Davis and Duke’s Peyton Jones. Purdie has managed only 14 yards on 19 rushes but boasts a 5‑0 touchdown‑to‑interception ratio while completing 36 of 64 passes for 563 yards. Liberty possessed the ball for more than 37 minutes in its season‑opening loss to James Madison yet was outgained per play, scoring 13 points on 65 offensive snaps. James Madison ran 49 plays for 291 yards and still secured the win. Coastal Carolina’s new head coach Ryan Beard is attempting to steer the Chanticleers in a positive direction, though progress has been slow. Montana State transfer Deuce Bailey has thrown for 826 yards and holds an 8‑0 touchdown‑to‑interception mark, but his completion rate sits at 55.7 % and he has been sacked ten times. Leading rusher Jevon Edwards averages 3.6 yards per carry, and Bailey has logged 82 yards on 26 attempts. After a quiet start versus West Virginia, Dominic Lee‑Knicely has gained 89 yards on his last 14 carries and may see an increased role. Coastal Carolina trailed West Virginia 24‑7 after three quarters before scoring 17 points in the fourth to make it competitive. A week later, they managed only 14 points against Delaware, stalled on a 4th‑and‑1 with roughly four minutes left, and never regained possession in a 22‑14 loss. In their two FBS outings, the Chanticleers have averaged 6.48 yards per play compared to opponents’ 5.86, while also maintaining a superior passing efficiency. Liberty aims to establish the run, employing play‑action and short‑to‑intermediate throws from moving pockets. Coastal Carolina struggles to run effectively and would prefer to throw the ball. The Chanticleers are one of just 26 teams nationwide without an interception this season and rank within the top 30 in yards per attempt. The author leans toward the under 50½, a total that has trended downward throughout the week due to the weather outlook. West Virginia’s 281 rushing yards against Coastal Carolina included a 72‑yard touchdown run, and Michael Hawkins Jr. has been among the most productive rushing quarterbacks so far. Liberty has logged four rushing touchdowns on 123 attempts, with only a single pass exceeding 30 yards. Missouri State’s offense was modest under Beard, and Coastal Carolina allows the 13th‑most sacks in the nation (tied for 135th with 11). Assuming turnover chaos does not erupt, the under appears to be the prudent side. **Pick:** Under 50½.