US Open betting: Pegula, Gauff offer big value in grand slam finale

US Open betting: Pegula, Gauff offer big value in grand slam finale On Sunday, the 2026 U.S. Open gets underway from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows. As the fourth and final Grand Slam of the season, these two weeks represent the biggest stretch on the tennis calendar, and New York consistently delivers. On the men’s side, Carlos Alcaraz returns to defend his title after being sidelined for more than four months with a close wrist injury. His opening match against Roman Safiullin will be our first real look at his form. Meanwhile, former world No. 1 Jannik Sinner is out due to a close knee wound that has kept him off the tour since Wimbledon. Sinner’s absence opens the draw for a field that also includes Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka is chasing a historic three‑peat, but the WTA draw remains deep and loaded, featuring Elena Rybakina, Iga Swiatek, Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva. Let’s examine the leading futures before main‑draw action begins. **U.S. Open women’s futures** **Jessica Pegula to win the title – 4th 2 (+200, 1.5 units) and to win the Open (12‑1, 0.5 units)** Among the top seeds, Pegula presents my preferred route to the semifinals. The American has played elite tennis throughout the North American hard‑court swing and should be a strong favorite in each round leading to a possible quarter‑final against Karolina Muchova or Elina Svitolina. Muchova has not competed in singles since Wimbledon, and Pegula holds a 6‑3 head‑to‑head advantage over Svitolina. Regarding the outright market, I cannot afford to overlook her if she finally captures her first Slam. A potential closing gauntlet—perhaps featuring Muchova, Sabalenka and Swiatek or Gauff—looks daunting, but Pegula is a proven competitor, and her back‑court game is precisely where it needs to be. **Coco Gauff to win the title – (+550, 2 units)** I backed Swiatek during her dominant run in Canada, but Gauff seized the “hottest subordinate successful tennis” label with a blistering week in Cincinnati that produced straight‑set victories over Marta Kostyuk and Pegula. Critically, Gauff has kept her double‑fault rate below 10 percent across nine consecutive matches. Her service motion appears mechanically sound, her forehand holds up under pressure, and the weaknesses opponents typically exploit are not showing up. Backed by an Arthur Ashe Stadium crowd that adores her, Gauff is the player to beat in Flushing. **U.S. Open men’s futures** **Frances Tiafoe (+700) and Brandon Nakashima (+750) to win the title – 4th 3** Although I have been bullish on Djokovic over the past two years, I cannot justify backing him here. His physical conditioning faltered in the Cincinnati heat against Thiago Agustin Tirante, and best‑of‑five conditions in humid New York will be far more demanding. Factoring in a shaky mixed‑doubles showing and unconvincing set performances, both Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev appear vulnerable. That leaves the quarter‑wide open, prompting me to back two in‑form Americans. Frances Tiafoe: Fresh off a run to the Cincinnati final despite recent hand surgery, he thrives under the New York lights and has received a manageable draw. Brandon Nakashima: Having reached at least the semifinals in Washington, Montreal and Cincinnati, Nakashima sits No. 7 globally in the Elo Rating (2003.9). He is serving like a top‑three player at the moment, making this price an outright bargain. **Arthur Fils to win the title – 4th 4 (+500) and to win the Open (12‑1, 0.25 units)** Surviving best‑of‑five tennis across a grueling draw with his back and hip intact is a legitimate question, but Fils is playing too well to ignore. The Frenchman delivered a masterclass to capture his maiden Masters 1000 crown in Cincinnati, dispatching Jiri Lehecka, Alex de Minaur, Flavio Cobolli and Tiafoe. Fils now ranks No. 3 in the Elo Rating (2107.1), performing at a level comparable to Alcaraz’s (2132.7) this season. He possesses the requisite serve, devastating forehand and natural athleticism to mount a deep run. Although he may need to navigate Shelton and Alcaraz just to reach the semifinals, his upside justifies the risk. Should he advance from the quarter, holding a live 12‑1 shot heading into the final would provide substantial leverage. **Previously added futures** - Iga Swiatek to win the title – (+800, 1.5 units) - Ben Shelton to win the title – (19‑1, 0.5 units) - Taylor Fritz to win the event – (19‑1, 0.5 units) - Rafael Jodar to win the title – (20‑1, 0.5 units) - Felix Auger‑Aliassime to win the title – (49‑1, 0.5 units)