Football betting: Friday’s Toledo-MSU, Miami-Stanford offer value

Football betting: Friday’s Toledo‑MSU, Miami‑Stanford offer value By Adam Burke, VSiN September 3, 2026 - 2:23 pm Friday Night Lights: College Football Edition delivers five matchups to open the season. Two of those contests present notable betting angles: a total‑points play in Toledo versus Michigan State and a point‑spread wager in Miami versus Stanford. **Toledo vs. Michigan State (‑10, 47)** 5 p.m. PT Under new head coach Mike Jacobs, formerly of Mercer, the Rockets will face a Michigan State squad led by longtime Big Ten stalwart Pat Fitzgerald. Toledo is slated to start quarterback John Alan Richter, who completed 17 of 25 passes for 153 yards with a three‑touchdown, one‑interception ratio last year. In 2024 he improved to 43 of 67 for 497 yards and a four‑touchdown, zero‑interception mark. Backup Khamoni Robinson, who spent three seasons at Lenoir‑Rhyne, could see action and is expected to contribute on the ground after logging nine rushing scores a year ago. Alessio Milivojevic, who relieved Aidan Chiles last season, will get his first start. He finished the previous campaign with 1,267 yards and a 10‑touchdown, three‑interception ratio. Milivojevic will throw to a revamped receiving corps that includes transfers from Notre Dame and Michigan, a combination that could add explosiveness. The run game will rely on offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan and head coach Fitzgerald to devise a plan. Michigan State ranked 110th nationally in rushing yards per game and 104th in yards per carry, though the team averaged 4.5 yards per carry outside Big Ten play. Transfer running back Cam Edwards, who amassed over 1,200 yards for UConn last season, may provide a boost. Toledo’s defense, which ranked second in yards allowed per game, third in yards per play and fourth in points allowed (13.3) a year ago, loses defensive coordinator Vince Kehres, now at Syracuse under Jason Candle, who moved to UConn. The unit’s departure is a significant setback. Nevertheless, defensive coordinator Jahmal Brown oversaw a group that recorded 42 sacks and 96 tackles for loss in 12 games last season, suggesting an aggressive approach that could yield both opportunities and risks. Milivojevic’s solid passing numbers, paired with a talented receiver group and Edwards in the backfield, make the over 47 points an attractive pick. **Pick: Over 47** **Miami (FL) (‑24, 47.5) vs. Stanford** 6 p.m. PT Stanford’s start under quarterback Tavita Pritchard impressed the author, despite initial reservations stemming from a sizable donor‑funded windfall and the hiring of general manager Andrew Luck. The Cardinal brought in first‑time offensive coordinator Terry Heffernan and quarterback Davis Warren via the transfer portal. Warren threw for more than 300 yards against Hawaii, and Stanford averaged 6.8 yards per play in that outing. Although the final score was tight, the performance warranted reconsideration: Stanford posted 2.1 yards per play more than Hawaii and ranked in the 72nd percentile for EPA/Play based on 2025 numbers, while Hawaii lingered around the league average and posted a 32nd‑percentile Success Rate on offense. Stanford’s yards per dropback in the opening game were strong, a factor that could help them stay competitive against Miami. The Hurricanes arrive with considerable hype, led by transfer running back Darian Mensah, returning running back Mark Fletcher and a deep talent pipeline aimed at replenishing a defense that lost key contributors. Mensah is expected to be a standout this season, supported by offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson and defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman. However, integrating those pieces may take time, especially when attempting to cover a large spread. **Pick: Stanford +24**