Election betting odds tell a different story than recent polls in the 2026 Nevada governor's race. While surveys have projected a toss-up between Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford and Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo, prediction markets show Ford as a heavy favorite.
According to electionbettingodds.com, which averages live odds from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt, Ford holds a 76.1 percent chance of winning compared to Lombardo's 23.9 percent. Those implied odds make Ford a -318 favorite, meaning a bettor would need to wager $318 to win $100, while a $100 bet on Lombardo would pay $318.
The markets have seen significant volume, with $5.1 million traded on Kalshi and $1.5 million on Polymarket for the Nevada governor winner market. Nevada law prohibits betting on elections within the state.
If elected, Ford would become Nevada's first Black governor. Lombardo is seeking a second term.
Sources: Las Vegas Review-Journal
Original reporting: Las Vegas Review-Journal →
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