Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026 | 2 a.m.
The betting marketplace has weighed successful emphatically connected which squad is likeliest to triumph the Mountain West implicit the past fewer weeks, and it’s not the hometown favorites successful the superior of the sports betting world.
UNLV and New Mexico opened arsenic virtual co-favorites earlier this summertime with likelihood really slanted a spot much toward the former. Circa Sports had UNLV astatine +290 (i.e., risking $100 to triumph $290) astatine the commencement of July with New Mexico astatine +305.
Since then, New Mexico has changeable down to +270 with UNLV rising to +320.
The Lobos won six successful a enactment astatine the extremity of past regular season, including a 40-35 triumph astatine UNLV arsenic 3.5-point underdogs, to necktie for the champion grounds successful the league with Boise State, San Diego State and the Rebels themselves.
UNLV and New Mexico won’t person to contend with the archetypal 2 this year, arsenic they shipped disconnected to the Pac-12 on with Fresno State, Colorado State and Utah State.
The defections should hypothetically assistance pave the mode for UNLV oregon New Mexico to triumph their archetypal league title successful decades. The Rebels haven’t raised a conference-title trophy since the 1994 Big West, portion the Lobos’ drought dates to the 1964 WAC.
Despite New Mexico being the prime du jour to triumph the Mountain West, UNLV’s likelihood to scope the College Football Playoff stay overmuch shorter — 10-to-1 astatine Caesars/William Hill compared to 20-to-1 for the former.
That whitethorn look counterintuitive, but it illustrates UNLV having higher upside if everything clicks arsenic good arsenic a stronger anticipation astatine an undefeated season. New Mexico has a nonconference crippled astatine Oklahoma, portion UNLV’s pre-Mountain West tilts each look much winnable.
Last year’s results picking each triumph full weren’t arsenic profitable successful the Mountain West arsenic the SEC, but stronger overall. I went 8-4 handicapping each triumph full successful the conference, though conscionable 2-2 connected plays to spell with 4-2 connected leans and 2-0 connected guesses.
Read beneath for investigation and a prime connected each Mountain West triumph full this play with picks labeled successful 1 of the 3 aforementioned assurance categories. Lines are the champion disposable successful Las Vegas connected the chosen broadside with the sportsbook noted. Check backmost implicit the adjacent 3 weeks for 3 much parts of this series.
Air Force (over/under 6.5 wins)
The Falcons ranked second-to-last successful the federation past twelvemonth defensively, giving up a miserable 7.4 yards per play. They’ll astir surely amended drastically this season, not lone due to the fact that there’s nary further to autumn but besides due to the fact that they’re 3rd successful the federation successful returning accumulation connected defense. Air Force’s antiaircraft enactment specifically emerged astatine the extremity of past season, and it should beryllium 1 of the amended teams successful the new-look league successful the trenches. It’s much commonly lined with a triumph full of over/under 7.5 wins astir pick’em, but mathematically playing the overmuch higher terms a full triumph little is much valuable.
Lean: Over 6.5 wins -190 (Boomer’s)
Hawaii (over/under 7.5 wins)
Former Bishop Gorman prima Micah Alejado was arsenic spectacular arsenic advertised astatine backmost past season, easy pulling retired my champion stake connected the over/under 5.5 wins. But present the inquire is importantly raised with Alejado arguably stuck with a weaker squad astir him. The Warriors lone person 3 different returning starters connected discourtesy and look peculiarly bladed astatine wide receiver. The undersized Alejado besides takes a batch of hits, leaving wounded a changeless concern, particularly aft helium spent each past play banged up and missed outpouring practice.
Play: Under 7.5 wins -120 (Caesars/William Hill)
New Mexico (over/under 8.5 wins)
New Mexico volition person to enactment unneurotic its champion play successful 29 years to spell implicit this triumph total. It’s possible, particularly with second-year manager Jason Eck displaying prowess successful each country a twelvemonth ago. The Lobos bring backmost much returners than anyone successful the conference, but determination are questions successful the accomplishment positions and connected the antiaircraft line. They should contend again, but it’s nary warrant that the momentum from the blistery streak to extremity past play carries over. The marketplace is pricing it arsenic each but a certainty.
Lean: Under 8.5 wins -135 (Circa)
Northern Illinois (over/under 3.5 wins)
It’s ironic that the Mountain West went acold retired of its accustomed footprint to woo Northern Illinois due to the fact that of its shot estimation contempt this year’s squad looking similar 1 of its worst successful decades. The Huskies are down to an interim coach, Rob Harley, and makeshift roster aft erstwhile caput manager Thomas Hammock near to go an adjunct with the Seattle Seahawks successful the offseason. The enactment being truthful debased makes it tough, but this is 1 of the worst teams connected the apical level of assemblage shot connected paper.
Lean: Under 3.5 wins -115 (South Point)
North Dakota State (over/under 8.5 wins)
Last year’s mentation of the Bison, which started 12-0 earlier suffering a shocking upset to Illinois State successful the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs, would beryllium the runaway favourite to triumph this conference. But the squad is going to look a batch antithetic this twelvemonth with the nonaccomplishment of astir of the stars from that group, and the question becomes whether they tin support the program’s consistency moving up a level. The Mountain West looks similar a brushed landing spot; it’s hard to uncertainty the Bison though the asking terms is steep.
Guess: Over 8.5 wins -150 (South Point)
San Jose State (over/under 4.5 wins)
The Spartans’ backmost contention is chiefly betwixt a erstwhile Hawaii backup, Luke Weaver, and a erstwhile UCLA redshirt, Robert McDaniel. It doesn’t look that they person an perfect campaigner to tally Ken Niumatalolo’s pass-happy run-and-shoot scheme. Meanwhile, the defence grades retired arsenic perchance the worst successful the league from a endowment perspective.
Lean: Under 4.5 wins +120 (Boomer’s)
UNLV (over/under 7.5 wins)
Much similar Air Force, UNLV’s triumph full is much wide arsenic over/under 8.5 wins with plus-money connected the upside. But wage the premium to get implicit 7.5 astatine BetMGM oregon Boomer’s due to the fact that 8-4 mightiness beryllium its likeliest landing spot. It’s hard to get excessively jazzed connected UNLV with a reclamation-project quarterback, Jackson Arnold, and a defence that looks spotty astatine best, a portion that couldn’t get to respectable levels past play contempt starring the league successful turnover luck. But the endowment connected the roster is stronger than anyone other successful the league, which could assistance the Rebels overwhelm opponents.
Guess: Over 7.5 wins -185 (BetMGM)
UNR (over/under 4.5 wins)
In opposition to the Scarlet and Gray, the Blue and Silver sat past successful the Mountain West past twelvemonth successful turnover luck. The Wolf Pack besides went 1-4 successful games decided by little than a touchdown. Those are conscionable 2 factors that pointed to them being much competent than their 3-9 straight-up grounds fto on. They mightiness person been destined to stay a bottom-feeder successful the aged Mountain West but, with the realignment, look similar they could beryllium a tier supra the existent dregs of Northern Illinois, San Jose State and UTEP.
Lean: Over 4.5 wins +110 (STN)
UTEP (over/under 7.5 wins)
Here’s different programme that doesn’t get successful the Mountain West connected the champion trajectory. Coach Scotty Walden is reportedly warring for his occupation aft going a combined 5-19 his archetypal 2 seasons successful Conference USA, which is adjacent weaker than the existent Mountain West. The roster doesn’t look upgraded successful immoderate important mode and the Miners’ spot of docket stands retired arsenic the toughest successful the league — mostly due to the fact that of sacrificial-lamb nonconference tilts astatine Oklahoma and Michigan.
Guess: Under 3.5 wins -130 (South Point)
Wyoming (over/under 5.5 wins)
No squad successful the league carries wider variance going into the play than Wyoming. The Cowboys mightiness beryllium worthy a sprinkle astatine 22-to-1 to triumph the Mountain West if violative coordinator Christian Taylor, who comes implicit from the Buffalo Bills wherever helium served arsenic an violative adviser, tin modernize the attack. But if Taylor can’t present and Wyoming falls into its accustomed archaic marque of football, the downside is conscionable arsenic large. Bet connected the imaginable successful a league that doesn’t look precise intimidating.
Play: Over 5.5 wins -110 (BetMGM)
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