Can Kane buck history and win Ballon d'Or?

ByMohamed Moallim

BBC Sport Journalist

With the Ballon d'Or shortlist to beryllium announced tomorrow, Harry Kane heads the tract arsenic the bookmakers' favourite aft a prolific play for nine and country. History, however, suggests football's biggest idiosyncratic prize is seldom decided connected goals alone.

Since the Ballon d'Or was archetypal awarded successful 1956, performances successful the game's biggest competitions person consistently shaped the outcome.

World Cup years, successful particular, person followed a remarkably wide signifier and caller editions person shown conscionable however hard it is to triumph the grant without lifting a large planetary oregon continental tournament.

Once the nominees are announced, an planetary assemblage of specialised journalists volition formed their votes, with 1 typical per state from the men's apical 100 having their say.

So, tin Kane, who has ne'er finished higher than 10th successful the conflict to beryllium the world's champion player, go 1 of the uncommon exceptions?

Created by France Football writer Gabriel Hanot, the Ballon d'Or was archetypal presented successful 1956, with England's Sir Stanley Matthews the inaugural winner. Originally voted for by journalists, the grant was restricted to European players until eligibility was expanded to each nationalities successful 1995.

Raymond Kopa became the archetypal Ballon d'Or victor successful a World Cup twelvemonth aft helping France scope the 1958 semi-finals. To people the award's 60th day successful 2016, France Football revisited every pre-1995 edition, external. Its retrospective reappraisal concluded Pele would person claimed the grant aft inspiring Brazil to their archetypal World Cup triumph astatine the property of 17.

Four years later, Josef Masopust officially won the Ballon d'Or aft captaining Czechoslovakia to the World Cup final. Again, France Football judged Brazil's Garrincha to person been the standout performer aft starring his state to successive World Cup titles.

It reached the aforesaid verdict for Pele successful 1970 aft helium inspired Brazil to a 3rd World Cup crown. By then, a wide signifier had emerged. Bobby Charlton (1966), Paolo Rossi (1982), Lothar Matthaus (1990), Zinedine Zidane (1998), Ronaldo (2002) and Fabio Cannavaro (2006) each won the Ballon d'Or aft lifting the World Cup.

Even among the authoritative exceptions, players inactive tended to bask heavy runs astatine the tournament. Johan Cruyff collected the Ballon d'Or aft starring the Netherlands to the 1974 World Cup final, portion Luka Modric repeated the feat with Croatia successful 2018.

World Cup occurrence has ne'er been an implicit requirement. Kevin Keegan won the 1978 Ballon d'Or contempt England failing to suffice for the World Cup, though France Football aboriginal concluded Argentina striker Mario Kempes would person been the deserving victor aft finishing arsenic the tournament's apical scorer and helping the hosts assistance the trophy. The work reached the aforesaid verdict for World Cup winners Diego Maradona successful 1986 and Romario successful 1994.

France Football's reappraisal yet reinforced the World Cup's power connected the Ballon d'Or. In essence, had the prize ever been unfastened to players from each countries, each South American World Cup-winning broadside betwixt 1958 and 1994 would person supplied the winner.

The World Cup is not the lone contention to signifier Ballon d'Or voting.

Recent past suggests occurrence successful 1 of football's biggest tournaments has go astir a prerequisite. Only 4 of the erstwhile 19 Ballon d'Or winners failed to assistance either the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship oregon Copa America during the twelvemonth of their triumph.

Those exceptions underline conscionable however bonzer Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo had to be. Messi won contempt Argentina's quarter-final exit astatine the 2010 World Cup, and again successful 2012 and 2019 without lifting a large planetary oregon continental trophy.

Ronaldo besides prevailed successful 2013 aft Portugal failed to advancement beyond the World Cup play-offs, acknowledgment mostly to different singular idiosyncratic play with Real Madrid.

Conversely, Wesley Sneijder's treble with Inter Milan and tally to the 2010 World Cup final, Franck Ribery's relation successful Bayern Munich's 2013 treble and Mohamed Salah's record-breaking 2017-18 play each proved insufficient erstwhile voters favoured antithetic narratives.

Rightly oregon wrongly, modern Ballon d'Or voting has consistently rewarded football's biggest occasions. That presents Kane with different obstacle.

Unlike Ronaldo successful 2014 oregon Luka Modric successful 2018, helium cannot constituent to Champions League glory arsenic Bayern Munich's European run ended successful the semi-finals against eventual winners Paris St-Germain.

Nor is helium alone, with Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham each imaginable rivals and attempting to subordinate 1 of the award's strongest caller trends.

History points towards large honours being important to winning the Ballon d'Or but Kane's 2025-26 play suggests this whitethorn not beryllium a emblematic race.

The England skipper scored 73 goals for nine and state - 61 for Bayern Munich and 12 for England - successful a play successful which Bayern won the Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal and England finished 3rd astatine the World Cup.

Among players representing clubs from Europe's apical 5 leagues, lone Messi has scored much goals for nine and state successful a azygous season, the Argentine striking 82 times for Barcelona and Argentina successful 2011-12.

Kane's tally places him up of Bayern large Gerd Muller (72 successful 1972-73), Cristiano Ronaldo (66 successful some 2011-12 and 2014-15), Ronaldo (66 successful 1996-97), Haaland (64 successful 2022-23) and Luis Suarez (64 successful 2015-16).

Voters mightiness look a acquainted dilemma.

Rodri appears Kane's strongest rival. The erstwhile Ballon d'Or victor was arguably Spain's standout performer passim the tournament, collecting the Golden Ball aft helping his state unafraid a 2nd World Cup title.

Lamine Yamal besides added a World Cup winner's medal to a play successful which helium helped Barcelona reclaim La Liga, though it was teenage team-mate Pau Cubarsi who claimed the Fifa Young Player Award aft a bid of outstanding performances.

Mbappe and Messi are besides expected to diagnostic prominently. Mbappe finished arsenic the World Cup's apical scorer with 10 goals, portion besides claiming the Champions League Golden Boot and La Liga's apical scorer trophy, contempt France falling abbreviated of the last and Real Madrid ending the play without a large honour. Messi, meanwhile, captained Argentina to a 2nd successive World Cup last and astatine the property of 39 scored 8 goals during the tournament.

Should Kane prevail, helium would go lone the 5th Englishman to triumph the Ballon d'Or aft Matthews, Charlton, Keegan and Michael Owen. He would besides go the archetypal subordinate representing a Bundesliga nine to assistance the trophy since Matthias Sammer successful 1996.

History suggests the likelihood stay stacked against him but fewer players person entered a Ballon d'Or predetermination with stronger idiosyncratic credentials.

Voters indispensable present determine if 1 of the astir prolific goalscoring seasons of the modern epoch outweighs football's biggest prizes, and if Kane tin articulation 1 of the astir exclusive groups successful Ballon d'Or history.