Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 17 winners against the spread

A month ago, the home fans at Acrisure Stadium booed the Pittsburgh Steelers off the field and chanted to fire Mike Tomlin, the NFL’s longest-tenured coach.

The reception to the Steelers’ 26-7 Week 13 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Las Vegas sportsbooks was just as frosty. Pittsburgh was a popular bet, dropping from a 4- to a 3-point underdog throughout the week, but looked sloppy and outclassed in allowing Buffalo to score 26 unanswered points down the stretch.

The Steelers haven’t lost, either straight-up or against the spread, since.

They clinched their win total by eclipsing the preseason number of over/under 8.5 wins with a 29-24 victory at the Lions as 7-point underdogs last week, and now sit as a prohibitive -1400 (i.e. risking $1400 to win $100) favorite to win the AFC North.  

The Steelers need only one win or one loss from the Baltimore Ravens in the final two weeks to earn the home-playoff game that comes with the divisional crown. The two sides face off in Baltimore in Week 18.

Pittsburgh has now gone over its win total in five consecutive seasons, the longest current streak in the NFL. Tomlin’s Steelers teams have beaten their win totals in 14 of 19 total seasons under his watch.  

This would be the coach's eighth divisional title, and first since 2020. None of the previous ones were this improbable, however, as Pittsburgh was as high as 7-to-1 to win the AFC North coming into the season — a clear third choice behind Baltimore and the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game in nine years, however, and the audible hometown gripes may return if they’re ousted early again this year. Gamblers should probably refrain out of respect for Tomlin though, as no coach has been a surer futures bet going on two decades.  

Read below to find my handicap on the point spread as part of every Week 17 game. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 128-102-9 after a 9-6-1 record last week.

Plays (42-39-4)

Tennessee Titans +3 vs. New Orleans Saints These teams are not all that different led by improving rookie quarterbacks with mostly mediocre supporting casts apart from some promising young players. The Saints are superior with No. 40 overall pick quarterback Tyler Shough outgunning the Titans’ No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward but not enough to lay a full field goal on the road, even though it requires paying -120.

Indianapolis Colts +6.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis didn’t look all that bad on "Monday Night Football" in Philip Rivers’ second start with the 38-27 loss as 3.5-point underdogs making for a misleading final score. Playing on a short week with a 44-year-old quarterback like Rivers is a concern, but so is Jacksonville’s situation of competing in a back-to-back road game off a contest at elevation in Denver.

Seattle Seahawks -7 at Carolina Panthers Few teams have overachieved more than the Panthers, which sit at 8-7 straight-up despite having posted only 6.2 estimated wins per the DVOA ratings. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are a veritable wrecking crew and have once again narrowly overtaken the top spot in the league by expected points added (EPA) per play after last week’s 38-37 win over the Rams as 1.5-point favorites.  

Los Angeles Rams -8 at Atlanta Falcons It took an unfathomable series of events for the Rams to blow a 16-point fourth-quarter lead in the aforementioned defeat. They’re still the most complete team in the league, and it might not be close. The Rams have been reliable against overmatched opponents too, going 5-2 against the spread when laying a touchdown or more.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 at Cleveland Browns This feels like a discount on the Steelers perhaps partially because of the two-game suspension handed down to top receiver DK Metcalf for a physical altercation with a fan. But forecast rain and wind figure to stymie passing games here anyway, and Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has enough weapons to make do.

San Francisco 49ers -3 vs. Chicago Bears San Francisco’s offense has rated among the most efficient in the league ever since quarterback Brock Purdy returned from turf toe last month. The revitalized 49ers’ attack should be enough to overwhelm a flawed Bears defense that still sits No. 21 in DVOA despite a recent uptick.

Leans (44-30-5)

Detroit Lions -6 at Minnesota Vikings Despite their playoff hopes looking minimal at best sitting 1.5 games behind the Packers for the last spot, the Lions still rank No. 3 in the NFL by DVOA. Their pass rush is formidable and should swallow up undrafted rookie quarterback Max Brosmer in his second career start.   

Houston Texans +2 at Los Angeles Chargers This line swung three points based on last week’s results, which saw the Texans struggle in a 23-21 win over the Raiders as 14-point favorites and the Chargers fly in a 34-17 win over the Cowboys as 1.5-point underdogs. That’s too much of a shift, but it’s better to wait and only fire if the spread reaches +3.

Dallas Cowboys -7 at Washington Commanders Commanders quarterback Marcus Mariota appears to unlikely to play at publication time, leaving the team to turn to either Josh Johnson or Jeff Driskel. For all their flaws, the Cowboys have always been able to score, and it’s doubtful either of the veteran Commanders’ duo can keep up.    

New York Giants +1.5 at Las Vegas Raiders The number on this game last week was Giants -2.5. The Raiders showed signs of life for the first time in weeks while the Giants bottomed out in a 16-13 loss to the Vikings as 3-point favorites where they managed only 33 passing yards. But a four-point move at this time of the season — even a relatively insignificant one through zero — with no major issues is, well, too giant.  

Guesses (42-33)

Miami Dolphins +5.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay is in free fall with seven straight losses against the spread. The market struggles to adjust to collapses that might have more intangible causes, so there might still be room to fade the Buccaneers. Still, it’s hard to be in a rush to back Dolphins ultragreen rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers.  

Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 at Buffalo Bills Buffalo is more flawed with a terrible defense and an increasingly one-dimensional offense too reliant on the run game. That being said, it hurts to have missed the opening price of Philadelphia +3 and allowed the line to settle in more appropriate territory.  

Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 vs. Denver Broncos The Broncos’ offense has looked more capable of eclipsing high spreads like this in recent weeks, but it’s supposed to be cold and rainy at Arrowhead Stadium to increase the difficulty. The line was eight points higher than this last week, and the drop from Gardner Minshew — who tore his ACL in his first start in relief of Patrick Mahomes — to Chris Oladokun might not be worth quite that much.   

New York Jets +13.5 vs. New England Patriots The line for the Week 11 meeting between these teams was identical, and the Jets covered in a 27-14 loss on the road. They should still be able to keep it reasonably tight against an AFC East divisional opponent, especially with the Patriots having come out of a 28-24 win over the Ravens as 3.5-point underdogs beaten up.  

Baltimore Ravens +2.5 at Green Bay Packers A game is always a stay-away if it drives bettors to try to play doctor but, at the moment, it seems more likely that Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson returns from a back injury than Packers quarterback Jordan Love clears concussion protocol. There’s so much injury uncertainty here that it’s best to take the points either way.

Arizona Cardinals +7 at Cincinnati Bengals This number is exactly right in a game between teams that mirror each other with offenses that can catch fire but defenses that are almost aways extremely flimsy. Cincinnati’s defense might be in a class of its own for ineptitude, however, so at a minimum, backdoor covering opportunities should exist for Arizona.