Analysis: Raiders’ schedule sets stronger path for Mendoza to start right away

The Raiders will play seven games next season against defenses that finished last year inside the NFL’s top 10 by the DVOA ratings.

Only one such contest comes in the opening six weeks, which should be the main takeaway of Las Vegas' 2026-2027 slate — which is listed in full at the bottom of the page — released Thursday night as part of the NFL’s full-season schedule reveal.

The runway now appears clearer for top overall pick Fernando Mendoza to start at quarterback from Day 1 for the Raiders.

The only game over the first month and a half that fits the aforementioned criteria is a Week 2 trip to take on the divisional rival Chargers, who finished 10th in defensive DVOA last year.

But Los Angeles has more questions on that side of the ball this season, with lauded defensive coordinator Jesse Minter having moved cross-country to take over as head coach of the Baltimore Ravens.

The Raiders open Sept. 13 at home against the Miami Dolphins, who project to have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Sending Mendoza out for that matchup wouldn’t be like throwing the rookie out of a plane without a parachute prematurely — something the Raiders have repeatedly insisted they will avoid at all costs.

General manager John Spytek and coach Klint Kubiak have hinted that they’d prefer to go into the year with newly signed veteran Kirk Cousins behind center. They could have therefore gone into the schedule release with eye on finding a soft landing spot midseason for Mendoza’s first potential start.

That didn’t happen.

The Raiders’ schedule really ramps up in difficulty, particularly from an opposing defensive perspective, starting Oct. 25 with a Week 7 game hosting the Los Angeles Rams.

Two weeks later, the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks visit Allegiant Stadium. The first of two meetings in a month with the divisional rival Denver Broncos, who had the best defense in the NFL by multiple metrics in the 2025-2026 season, directly follow.

Given that gauntlet, it might be better to get Mendoza accustomed to the professional game earlier so he’s not scrambling during the challenging middle of the schedule.

Spytek has vowed the competition between Cousins and Mendoza will ultimately be “a meritocracy,” where the top option plays despite his usual lean to a veteran.

Mendoza has already made an impression in rookie minicamp and early offseason team activities, perhaps looking even better than anticipated.

Cousins remains the favorite to get the initial nod, with sportsbooks listing him around odds of -250 (i.e. risking $250 to win $100) to start Week 1, and Mendoza coming back at +200 (i.e. risking $100 to win $200).

That implies a nearly 70% chance Cousins gets the call.

With the way the schedule fell, the race between the two passers should get tighter.

The development of Mendoza looms as the most important part of the upcoming season and extends into every facet — including the schedule release.

Other takeaways from the Raiders’ schedule will draw as much or more attention, like the fact that they don’t have a single primetime game — including Thursday Night Football. The NFL in recent years scrapped requirements that every team must play in a stand-alone spot and on a nontraditional day, but that might be all the better for the Raiders this year.

They have no short-rest spots and, for the seventh consecutive year since moving to Las Vegas, no international assignments.

Mendoza remains unlikely to start every game of his rookie season, but the probability spiked a bit with the specifics of the season ahead now evident.

Read the Raiders’ full 2026-2027 schedule below.

Week 1 — vs. Miami Dolphins, 1:25 p.m. on Sunday Sept. 13

Week 2 — at Los Angeles Chargers, 1:05 p.m. on Sunday Sept. 20

Week 3 — at New Orleans Saints, 1:25 p.m. on Sunday Sept. 27

Week 4 — vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 1:25 p.m. on Sunday Oct. 4

Week 5 — at New England Patriots, 10 a.m. on Sunday Oct. 11

Week 6 — vs. Buffalo Bills, 1:25 p.m. on Sunday Oct. 18

Week 7 ­— vs. Los Angeles Rams, 1:25 p.m. on Sunday Oct. 25

Week 8 — at New York Jets, 10 a.m. on Sunday Nov. 1

Week 9 — at San Francisco 49ers, 1:05 p.m. on Sunday Nov. 8

Week 10 — vs. Seattle Seahawks, 1:05 p.m. on Sunday Nov. 15

Week 11 — at Denver Broncos, 1:25 p.m. on Sunday Nov. 22

Week 12 — at Cleveland Browns, 10 a.m. on Sunday Nov. 29

Week 13 — BYE

Week 14 — vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 1:05 p.m. on Sunday Dec. 13

Week 15 — vs. Denver Broncos, 1:25 p.m. on Sunday Dec. 20

Week 16 — vs. Tennessee Titans, 1:05 p.m. on Sunday Dec. 27

Week 17 — at Arizona Cardinals, 1:05 p.m. on Sunday Jan. 3

Week 18 — at Kansas City Chiefs, date and time TBD