US Open betting: Not so fast with those patriotic plays

US Open betting: Not so fast with those patriotic plays By Zachary Cohen VSiN September 12, 2026 - 2:05 pm Ben Shelton is expected to face Alexander Zverev in Sunday’s U.S. Open men’s final. Shelton aims to capture his first Grand Slam title, while Zverev seeks his second major championship. If you have been following VSiN’s U.S. Open coverage, you should hold a half‑unit stake on Shelton to win the tournament at 19‑1. We also placed a three‑unit wager on Zverev to win at +100 before he defeated Karen Khachanov. That said, you can still enjoy the match as a spectator, which is exactly what I intend to do.

VSiN, The Sports Betting Network

Many readers are asking for my take on this final, and I have a clear inclination. Had I not already held futures positions, I would have placed a substantial bet on Zverev at -143, potentially increasing it to -160. Shelton brings considerable assets to the court: a powerful serve, aggressive play, and a love for big‑stage competition. A narrative exists in which the American rises to the occasion, becoming the first U.S. man to win a Grand Slam since Andy Roddick in 2003. Nevertheless, I view -160 as a viable price for Zverev because I estimate he wins this matchup about seven times out of ten, making a standout performance by Shelton relatively improbable. Zverev holds a 5‑0 career record against Shelton and has not lost a set in their last four encounters. He has also defeated Shelton in straight sets in their two most recent meetings on fast, low‑bouncing surfaces—Cincinnati and the Nitto ATP Finals in 2025. Those conditions would seemingly favor Shelton, given Zverev’s preference for slower courts and longer rallies. On‑court dynamics strongly favor Zverev. According to TennisViz’s Courtside Advantage metrics, Zverev possesses several edges. Over the past 52 weeks, both players register a Serve Quality rating of 8.8 out of 10 in non‑Grand Slam events, which is essentially the sole area where Shelton appears competitive. Zverev outperforms Shelton in Return Quality (7.4 versus 6.8), Forehand Quality (8.0 versus 7.3) and Backhand Quality (8.1 versus 7.1). Stylistically, Zverev’s game is structured to neutralize this type of opponent. Although Shelton has displayed disciplined tennis over the preceding two weeks, Zverev can prolong baseline exchanges indefinitely, offering Shelton little respite. Moreover, Zverev excels against left‑handed players, boasting an 88‑18 career record versus them; seven of those defeats came at the hands of Rafael Nadal. Zverev’s relative weakness lies in his forehand, yet he tends to direct that shot crosscourt to Shelton’s backhand. While his forehand can falter from the back of the court against top‑tier opposition, Shelton’s backhand is the weaker stroke in this matchup. Having clinched the French Open earlier this summer, Zverev shed the pressure of seeking his first major title. He arrives at this final with the experience of a Grand Slam victory and appearances in five different major finals, which should ease his nerves despite the contrasting atmosphere of a boisterous New York crowd rooting for an energetic American. **Strong lean:** Zverev moneyline (-143)