Rubio visits India to sell energy as Iran oil shock persists

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived successful India connected Saturday for a four-day sojourn amid geopolitical crosswinds and a planetary vigor situation triggered by the Iran war.

He arrived successful the eastbound metropolis of Kolkata (formerly Calcutta) successful the greeting section time. His engaged itinerary besides includes visits to Delhi, Jaipur and Agra.

He is besides owed to conscionable Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with vigor apt to beryllium precocious connected the agenda.

Energy shipments done the Strait of Hormuz - a constrictive shipping lane that has go a flashpoint since Israel and the US attacked Iran successful February - person virtually crushed to a halt.

Iran has utilized the closure of the strait arsenic a unit maneuver successful the fragile bid negotiations with the US.

India, which imports much than 80% of its vigor needs, is 1 of the worst affected countries arsenic its immense colonisation of much than 1.4 cardinal depends connected overseas substance supply, including cooking state and petroleum products, to prolong regular life.

Rubio has already acknowledged the challenges facing Asia's 3rd largest economy.

"We privation to merchantability them [India] arsenic overmuch vigor arsenic they'll buy. And obviously, you've seen, I think, we're astatine historical levels of US accumulation and US export," helium said.

There volition beryllium appetite successful Delhi to boost its vigor imports from the US arsenic it volition besides assistance span the commercialized shortage that has been successful India's favour - thing that has perpetually irked President Donald Trump.

The US goods commercialized shortage with India was $58.2bn successful 2025, a 27.1% summation implicit 2024.

But it's not a straightforward solution. It's a overmuch longer and costly way for India to get vigor shipments from the US.

And analysts accidental it is not logical for India to capable the existent shortfall successful its imports from the US.

"Energy information is going to beryllium the cardinal taxable of this sojourn due to the fact that the Iran concern is not going to beryllium resolved anytime soon. The US has already fixed a waiver to India connected buying Russian oil, but Delhi is apt to propulsion for much concessions," Vineet Prakash, subordinate prof of US studies astatine Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, said.

Rubio's sojourn besides comes nether the shadiness of prolonged tensions betwixt Delhi and Washington implicit commercialized negotiations and conflicting claims connected who settled the little India-Pakistan struggle past year.

While Trump has repeatedly claimed that helium brokered bid betwixt the neighbours, Delhi has consistently denied it with its stated argumentation of not welcoming a 3rd enactment to mediate betwixt the nuclear-armed nations successful South Asia.

What besides appears to person displeased Delhi is Trump's unfastened affection for Pakistani service main Asim Munir, whom the US president has called his "favourite tract marshal".

Prakash added this wasn't astonishing arsenic Pakistan shares a agelong borderline with Iran and it's strategically important for the US to support the state close.

But Rubio is not apt to marque statements astir Pakistan connected this trip.

"Any talks astir Pakistan are apt to enactment down closed doors erstwhile Rubio meets leaders successful Delhi," Prakash added.

Meanwhile, the past fewer months person besides seen Washington and Delhi offering an olive subdivision to each other.

Trump's determination to little reciprocal tariffs connected India earlier this twelvemonth from 50% to 18% aft a 10-month impasse was met with a immense consciousness of alleviation successful Delhi.

Following a Supreme Court verdict against his sweeping duties, the levies were reduced to 10%, further easing unit connected Indian exporters.

The 2 sides are presently negotiating the last substance of a broader bilateral deal, but further details of the negotiations stay sketchy.

Trade experts, meanwhile, are circumspect astir the large numbers being thrown astir due to the fact that India's existent commercialized with the US is astatine a fraction of the $500bn fig and Trump's announcements haven't been met with tangible concern commitments from India yet.

For instance, Mukesh Ambani, 1 of India's richest men, has been conspicuously soundless connected Trump's pronouncement that his institution Reliance Industries volition backmost a $300bn lipid refinery successful Brownsville, Texas - the archetypal successful the US successful 50 years.

But amid uncertainty astir what the last substance of the commercialized statement with the US volition entail, India's exports to the US remained unchangeable astatine $87.3bn successful the twelvemonth ended March 2026.

"Exports roseate 0.9% year-on-year contempt steep reciprocal tariffs betwixt May 2025 and February 2026," Ajay Srivastava of the Global Trade and Research Initiative think-tank told the BBC.

And they person continued to emergence further arsenic the levies were brought down, with $8.5bn worthy of Indian goods shipped to the US successful April.

This reflects "continued affirmative interaction of the lowered tariffs", Crisil Research said, adding, though, that "given uncertainties astir tariff levels, the trajectory of India's exports to the US remains monitorable".

Amid the uncertainties, India has besides been forced to liberalise its notoriously protectionist commercialized policy. Delhi has expeditiously closed precocious escaped commercialized agreements (FTAs) with a scope of different countries and blocs, including the UK, European Union, Australia and Oman.

While Trump has said India volition little each tariff and non-tariff barriers connected US goods to zero, these deals "provide a model nether which some parties could safeguard immoderate sectors", Pranjul Bhandari of HSBC said aft the tariff withdrawal.

This shows that contempt a wide opening up of the system to US companies, sectors similar agriculture and dairy could stay fiercely protected adjacent erstwhile the last commercialized woody betwixt India and the US is inked.

Beyond trade, what volition beryllium absorbing to ticker is what nationalist statements the caput of authorities makes connected India's relation successful the Iran war.

Rubio knows that India volition ever beryllium reluctant to play immoderate relation beyond diplomacy successful keeping the Strait open. Delhi is against Trump's repeated exhortations to different countries to deploy subject assets to guarantee escaped shipping successful the troubled waterway.

And finally, determination is the question of the Quad - a radical that besides includes Australia and Japan, too India and the US.

Trump was bullish connected the Quad successful his archetypal word successful bureau arsenic his medication astatine the clip saw the grouping arsenic a imaginable challenger to China's dominance successful the Indo-Pacific region.

In Delhi, Rubio volition be a gathering of Quad overseas ministers connected 26 May, up of the expected acme of its leaders aboriginal this twelvemonth successful the Indian capital.

So far, determination is nary confirmation if Trump volition be the acme oregon whether it volition adjacent spell ahead.

Prakash says this shows that Trump has realised that "China is not a pushover", and that is wherefore helium would privation a antithetic benignant of engagement astir Quad. The acme was owed past year, but a lukewarm effect from Trump made immoderate accidental that the Quad was connected "life support".

Whether the gathering of Quad overseas ministers tin revive the forum volition beryllium intimately watched.

For Delhi, the enactment acme volition beryllium important to further burnish its credentials arsenic a increasing geopolitical power, and it volition privation it to spell ahead.

As for the quality of engagement and the tone, Delhi volition astir apt measure what Rubio has to accidental connected Quad earlier making immoderate steadfast statements.

The China origin is arsenic important for Delhi arsenic it's for Washington. And it's peculiarly important present due to the fact that Delhi is besides owed to big a acme of Brics - which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran and Saudi Arabia, among others - successful September.