NFL betting: Three RBs are worth playing for prop bets

NFL betting: Three RBs are worth playing for prop bets By Dustin Swedelson VSiN September 18, 2026 - 12:59 pm The shift from Week 1 to Week 2 can make NFL player props tricky to evaluate. Teams adjust defensive schemes while offenses may adopt new philosophies. VSiN’s OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections help fill the gaps when assessing this week’s options. Jeremiyah Love **Over 14 ½ receiving yards** Seattle ranked third in total defense last season. Elite run defenses often surrender receiving yards to running backs because it keeps a top playmaker involved and because teams trailing tend to throw more. The Seahawks conceded the sixth‑most receiving yards to RBs in 2025 at 37.6 per game and the 11th‑most in 2024 at 36.7 per game. In the season opener against New England, Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson posted 44 receiving yards; he also had 40 versus Seattle in the Super Bowl. Since Week 18 of the previous season, an RB has exceeded 14 ½ receiving yards in each of Seattle’s last five games, including the NFC championship where Blake Corum and Kyren Williams both went over the mark. Love is battling Tyler Allgeier for snaps. Allgeier out‑snapped Love 44‑32 in Week 1, though each finished with two catches for nine yards; Love recorded two additional targets. Love’s dynamic skill set makes him a stronger candidate for third‑down work and a likely surpasser of the projection. OptaAI forecasts 17.52 receiving yards for Love, giving the Over a 7.6 percent edge. Jonathan Taylor **Under 84 ½ rushing yards or over 16 ½ receiving yards** Last year, when facing top‑15 run defenses, Taylor averaged 82.2 rushing yards and 20.3 receiving yards per game. Kansas City ranked eighth against the run a season ago and limited Denver’s RBs to 54 yards on 11 carries on Monday. OptaAI projects Taylor for 66.43 rushing yards and 24.53 receiving yards versus the Chiefs. The line reflects both a matchup consideration and a game‑script factor; Kansas City is a 6.5‑point home favorite, and a late Chiefs lead would likely force Daniel Jones to throw more frequently. With Jones under center last season, Taylor averaged 25.3 receiving yards per game, compared with 18.5 after Jones’ injury. The receiving side appeals to me; OptaAI shows a 21.8 percent advantage versus the number. The rushing Under also carries a 20.3 percent edge according to OptaAI. Bucky Irving **Over 14 ½ rushing attempts or over 59 ½ rushing yards** The attempts prop attracted my attention after OptaAI indicated a 19.8 percent edge to the over, with a projection of 17.92 attempts. I also favor the rushing yards prop; OptaAI’s edge there is 5.6 percent, projecting 65.77 yards. My only hesitation is if Tampa Bay blows out Cleveland and Irving sees limited fourth‑quarter action. Should Cleveland stay competitive as an underdog, both propositions look viable. Irving surpassed 14 ½ attempts in eight of ten games last year and cleared 59 ½ yards in seven of those outings. The Browns allowed the 11th‑most rushing attempts (22.7 per game) and the 17th‑most rushing yards (96.4 per game) to opposing RBs. In Week 1 they surrendered 121 yards on 25 carries to Jacksonville’s RBs. Irving out‑snapped recently added Kenneth Gainwell 35‑26 in Week 1 but managed only 45 rushing yards because Tampa Bay was playing from behind in a 33‑27 loss. This week the Bucs are 8.5‑point favorites; if the line holds and Tampa Bay moves the ball late, Irving should have a productive outing. Pairing a large favorite with a running back’s rushing props has historically felt promising.