Lake Mead will keep setting record lows over the next two years, forecasters say

Lake Mead will continue to hit record lows over the next two years, according to federal forecasters. By the close of next month, the Bureau of Reclamation projects the reservoir will fall below its 2022 record low of 1,040.58 feet above sea level. Forecasts indicate the lake will keep slipping, reaching roughly 31 feet beneath that historic low—1,009.69 feet above sea level—by June 2028. The most recent measurement, taken in June, placed the water surface at 1,044.58 feet above sea level. Jennifer Pitt, Colorado River programme manager at the Audubon Society, warned, “We’re blowing through our reserve supplies and storage. Once that bottoms out, we don’t have a choice but to start figuring out how to trim uses of water across the watershed.” Wednesday’s update represents a modest downgrade from last month’s projection, yet it still reflects this water year’s exceptionally poor snowpack and the Trump administration’s emergency action to reduce inflows to Lake Mead in order to bolster Lake Powell’s infrastructure. The announcement arrives just days before the Bureau of Reclamation is slated to publish a final environmental impact statement, prompted by the lack of a seven‑state agreement among Colorado River Basin officials. Experts contend that federal intervention could trigger a costly legal showdown before the U.S. Supreme Court. Pitt added, “It speaks to the urgency of getting new Colorado River operating rules in place that are up to the task of managing this kind of drought situation.” A team of leading researchers released a brief paper on Tuesday stating that the combined storage of Lake Mead and Lake Powell has not been this low since 1957, when Glen Canyon Dam began operations. The authors wrote, “Every year going forward, until runoff from the 2026‑2027 winter snowpack begins next spring, a new record low will likely be set. This is simply a critical moment in the evolving Colorado River water supply crisis.” Water managers are closely monitoring the 1,035‑foot elevation mark. Below that threshold, only five of Hoover Dam’s 17 turbines can generate power, officials say. Projections show Lake Mead will not drop beneath 1,035 feet until April 2027. Southern Nevada’s access to Lake Mead is safeguarded by one of the region’s earlier investments. When the reservoir falls below 895 feet, only Southern Nevada can withdraw water, effectively cutting off California and Arizona in a scenario termed a “dead pool.” This capability stems from the Southern Nevada Water Authority’s third intake and low‑level pumping station, which lets Nevada draw water down to 875 feet. Pitt remarked, “I could not fathom that anybody responsible would ever let the water get to dead pool. But if it did get there, it would not be dead pool for Southern Nevada Water Authority.” Bronson Mack, a spokesperson for the water authority, said in a statement that the region remains well‑prepared as Lake Mead levels decline. The bureau conducts long‑term asset planning under numerous scenarios, factoring in average conditions and population growth. Recently, the authority signed a memorandum of understanding with California to explore a water transfer that would allow Southern Nevada to benefit from the Carlsbad Desalination Plant in San Diego. Mack noted, “Decades of conservation, extended water recycling, stored water supplies and investments in our deep‑water intake and Low Lake Level Pumping Station help supply water reliability for our community. At the same time, continued conservation remains essential, as we each play an important role in utilizing water efficiently.”