How the new prison release scheme will work - and number of inmates to be freed

How the new prison release scheme will work - and number of inmates to be freed About 700 eligible offenders are set to leave jails in England and Wales on 1 October, with roughly 2,550 due for release by the end of the year under the government’s early‑release plan. ### Why are prisoners being released early? Prisons across England and Wales remain severely overcrowded. As of last Friday, 87,499 people were held in 120 facilities, leaving only about 1,500 spare beds. At the current rate, no cells will be free by Christmas. The early‑release strategy was drawn up after the Labour government took office in July 2024, inheriting a system in which prisons were rapidly running out of space because courts were sending more people to jail than were being released – a trend that has persisted for three decades. The previous administration had also failed to build the prisons it had promised. By summer 2024 virtually no spare cells remained, prompting the Ministry of Justice to introduce an emergency scheme that allowed some offenders to be freed after serving 40 % of their sentence instead of the usual 50 % for most fixed‑term prisoners. A permanent scheme approved by Parliament takes effect from Thursday. ### Which prisoners are being released and when? The plan applies to roughly 70,000 offenders. Those who had expected to serve half their sentence in custody and half on licence will now become eligible at the one‑third point of their term. The first group eligible are inmates sentenced to up to 19 months. From November, eligibility expands to those serving up to three years and two months. By next June, prisoners serving fixed terms of more than 12 years will qualify. Many of these individuals had anticipated serving two‑thirds of their sentence behind bars; instead they will move to a community licence after completing half of their time. The total length of each sentence remains unchanged – only the date at which they may begin serving part of it in the community shifts. Approximately 18,000 inmates are excluded from the scheme, including anyone convicted of murder, manslaughter, a sexual or grooming‑related offence, or a driving offence that caused a death. Their earliest release dates stay the same. ### How many prisoners are expected to be released early? Around 4,500 prisoners are projected to be freed by next summer. About 700 will walk out of prison on the morning of 1 October – roughly six per establishment if spread evenly across the estate. In a typical month roughly 4,500 people leave jail, so the first year of the scheme should see an 8 % increase in releases. ### What happens after prisoners are released? When someone leaves prison while still serving a sentence, they are released on licence, meaning they can be recalled if they breach conditions – ranging from missing a probation appointment or not living at an approved address to more serious violations such as contacting a victim, abandoning a rehabilitation programme, or committing a new offence. The accompanying “Earned Progression” rules aim to encourage compliance through tighter monitoring and intensive supervision. Consequently, more released individuals will be required to wear electronic tags and abide by additional stipulations. If they step outside the limits, they can be returned to custody immediately. Probation officers will need to work harder to monitor offenders nationwide. Martin Jones, the independent inspector of the service, said he is “not afloat confident” that the scheme will be able to cope. He added that officers already carry excessive caseloads and that the rate at which they are leaving the service has risen. A report released days before the October early releases warned that nearly half of offenders were not tagged promptly, despite electronic monitoring being deemed essential to the plan’s success. The government states that the probation service has recruited 1,300 extra staff and has also obtained new AI tools to help oversee offenders. ### How many offenders are recalled to prison? An offender can be recalled instantly if their probation officer or the Parole Board believes they have violated licence conditions, if the risk they pose increases, or if they threaten public safety. According to the latest official figures, 51,419 licence recalls occurred in the year ending March 2026 – a rise of 28 % on the previous year. Those recalls were slightly lower than the preceding three‑month period. Of the 51,419 recalls, about one in five was for broad “non compliance” and roughly one in ten resulted from failing to maintain contact with their probation officer. Around 2,900 involved a new offence. The authorities hope – and this is the central gamble – that greater investment in community rehabilitation will keep more people out of jail. ### Why has the government chosen these prisoners and not others? The original scheme, devised while Sir Keir Starmer was prime minister, would have permitted about 500 additional offenders to be released. Sir Keir’s successor, Andy Burnham, said he would reconsider the proposals amid public alarm, lobbying from victims of grooming gangs, and anger over the conceivable early release of two of the men who killed PC Andrew Harper. Burnham warned that scrapping the plan would leave prisons overcrowded and force courts to halt sentencing of new offenders. The government projects that the prison population will still grow to about 100,000 by 2030. Consequently, the £7 billion prison‑building programme it has pledged is vital, aiming to deliver 14,000 extra cells by that date. ### Is the government doing anything else? A further element of the programme is the effective scrapping of one‑year jail terms. Guidance now advises judges to usually suspend such sentences, meaning the offender will avoid prison unless they commit another crime. This approach draws on long‑standing evidence showing that fewer people re‑offend when they receive intensive supervision to help rebuild their lives, rather than being locked up for short periods.