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Eight of the 10 most populous countries are not in the World Cup

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Sincity Press Brief

Many countries with massive populations consistently miss out on football’s biggest party. What can they do to change their sporting fortunes?

Football fans ticker  the 2026 FIFA World Cup lucifer  betwixt  Argentina and Jordan connected  a elephantine  surface  successful  the Dhaka University country  of Dhaka, Bangladesh, connected  28 June. Many of them are wearing Argentina's iconic bluish  and achromatic  shirtImage source, Getty Images

Image caption,

Without a squad successful the World Cup, Bangladeshi fans person "adopted" different nations specified arsenic Argentina

ByFernando Duarte

BBC World Service

There was mayhem astatine the packed gathering of fans connected 17 June, erstwhile Argentina prima Lionel Messi scored his archetypal 2026 Fifa World Cup extremity by coolly slotting the shot past the Algerian goalkeeper.

But not a azygous Argentine was successful the crowd: the fans jumping astir - galore of them wearing the celebrated albiceleste (white and entity blue) garment - were locals successful 1 of the galore open-air ticker parties successful Bangladesh's capital, Dhaka.

Cities successful India and Indonesia person besides hosted likewise passionate thoroughfare gatherings.

Messi and his countrymen person been adopted by these fans, successful portion due to the fact that their ain nations person repeatedly failed to suffice for the World Cup.

Of the world's 10 astir populous countries, lone 2 person made it to the existent tourney (the United States and Brazil). Two others (Russia and Nigeria) person appeared astatine respective erstwhile tournaments.

China and Indonesia person lone erstwhile taken portion successful the astir fashionable sporting lawsuit connected the planet.

India (the world's astir populous nation), Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Pakistan person truthful acold lone dreamt of joining the enactment - though India technically qualified for the 1950 World Cup successful Brazil, but withdrew little than a period earlier the tourney started.

"It is simply unacceptable that a state with millions of shot fans should lag truthful acold down successful football," renowned Bangladeshi actor, writer and shot instrumentality Audite Karim tells the BBC.

So wherefore is it that colonisation size is specified a mediocre usher to footballing success?

In theory, the larger the colonisation of a fixed country, the much imaginable athletes determination are to recruit.

Seven retired of the 8 nations to ever triumph the World Cup (Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain) person comparatively ample populations.

The lone objection is Uruguay - but much connected them later...

However, colonisation size is lone 1 of a fig of important factors, explains British world and economist Stefan Szymanski.

"Football is precise akin to however nationalist economies work. For them to thrive, you request people. But past you besides request superior and infrastructure," says Szymanski, who is the co-author of Soccernomics, a best-selling publication which analyses information to analyse sporting occurrence and failure.

"In football, that means grooming facilities and the quality to find talent."

Szymanski observes that the immense bulk of palmy footballing nations stock different communal denominator: wealth.

In Soccernomics, Szymanski and co-author Simon Kuper recovered that countries typically request "a minimum yearly mean income per capita of $15,000 to triumph anything".

But Brazil and Argentina, whose mean income per capita is good beneath this threshold, person won 8 World Cup titles combined.

That, according to the British economist, shows the value of the 3rd factor: know-how.

"And that comes with experience. The nations that person ever won the World Cup are the ones that were ascendant successful playing the crippled 100 years ago, earlier colonialism ended."

Morocco players successful  reddish  shirts and greenish  shorts signifier  a huddle earlier  their 2026 World Cup lucifer  against Brazil successful  New Jersey connected  13 JuneImage source, Getty Images

Image caption,

Morocco is an illustration of a younger countries trying to catch-up with the established shot powers

In plain terms, palmy footballing nations, including the ones with regular information successful tournaments similar the World Cup, are besides the ones that person played much games crossed their history, particularly successful regions with higher levels of competitiveness similar South America and Europe.

That helps explain, for instance, wherefore Uruguay, a South American federation of 3.5 cardinal people, were capable to triumph 2 World Cups (1930 and 1950). La Celeste's archetypal planetary crippled - a 6-0 decision to Argentina - took spot successful 1902, 12 years earlier Brazil played its archetypal typical game.

African and South Asian nations, which person existed for a overmuch shorter clip oregon wherever shot developed later, person had to enactment hard to drawback up.

Some person stood out: Morocco, which became autarkic from Spain and France successful 1956, became the lone African federation to ever scope a World Cup semi-final successful Qatar 2022. South Korea became the lone Asian federation to ever decorativeness successful the apical four, arsenic co-host successful 2002.

"But past we spot different countries similar Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, and truthful forth, which are not catching up," Szymanski observes.

The economist says these countries person struggled owed to a deficiency of resources and capabilities. But adjacent with much concern they would inactive conflict with the deficiency of know-how, helium believes.

Nigeria's goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama (left) blocks the shot  successful  beforehand   of Ethiopia's Shemeles Bekele during a World Cup 2014 qualifier shot   lucifer   successful  Addis Ababa connected  13 October2013Image source, AFP via Getty Images

Image caption,

Ethiopia got adjacent to a maiden World Cup information successful 2014

Ethiopia has ne'er qualified for the World Cup. It did triumph the African Cup of Nations successful 1962, but its champion accidental to scope the main lawsuit came successful the 2014 African qualifiers: Ethiopia reached the last circular of qualifying but were beaten by Nigeria implicit 2 legs.

Currently, Ethiopian shot is dealing with what section media describes arsenic acute underinvestment successful the game. One illustration is that the ongoing play of the country's nonrecreational league has suffered from a shortage of suitable stadiums to big games.

"This season, we person staged much than 380 matches utilizing lone 3 approved stadiums," Ethiopian Premier League Chief Executive Officer Kifle Seife told The Reporter paper connected 27 June.

The shortage besides affected the men's nationalist team, which had to play its location matches successful the African qualifiers successful Morocco.

Cricket: an obstacle oregon an excuse successful South Asia?

Children play   cricket connected  a formation  successful  India - a batter prepares instrumentality     a plaything  astatine  a shot  delivered connected  a rudimentary track.Image source, AFP via Getty Images

Image caption,

Some successful South Asia judge the popularity of cricket hinders the improvement of football

Some countries are besides victims of their occurrence successful different sports: India is 1 the astir ascendant cricket nations connected the satellite and its nonrecreational league, the IPL, is the world's richest.

That, according to erstwhile India planetary Shyam Thapa, leads to terrible recruitment difficulties. The occurrence of the IPL, helium says, has led middle-class and upper-middle-class parents to progressively steer their children distant from shot and towards cricket.

"They [the parents] request to recognize that determination tin beryllium bully wealth if they tin marque a vocation successful shot too,'' Thapa, told BBC News.

Audite Karim, however, points retired that Australia and New Zealand are processing successful shot and making it to the Word Cup, contempt being cricket powerhouses.

"The popularity of cricket is purely an excuse," she says of Bangladesh, which besides adores the sport.

"We simply bash not person the mentation and structural model required for a state to play successful the [football] World Cup."

Is China a sleeping giant?

Chinese players grimace arsenic  Brazil's Roberto Carlos (right) unleashes a 14th infinitesimal  free-kick for a extremity   during the 2002 World CupImage source, AFP via Getty Images

Image caption,

China mislaid each their radical matches successful the 2002 World Cup without scoring a azygous goal

China's lawsuit is possibly much puzzling. In caller decades, it has go 1 of the astir palmy countries successful Olympic history. But its forays into men's shot person not borne akin fruit.

"There's nary crushed [in theory] wherefore China can't nutrient world-class footballers," Mark Dreyer, a Beijing-based Chinese shot expert, believes.

"The main occupation is that successful China everything is controlled by the authorities and everything is top-down. You request footballing radical making footballing decisions, but there's acold excessively overmuch governmental interference."

China has not returned to the World Cup since 2002, contempt dense concern successful the crippled since the 2010s - which included the flooding of its nonrecreational league with assorted high-profile names from South American and European shot successful a bid to elevate the modular of play.

Like China, Indonesia has besides tasted World Cup enactment erstwhile earlier - successful 1938, erstwhile it competed arsenic the Dutch East Indies, past a colony of the Netherlands.

The South East Asian broadside had a bully tally successful 2026 though, reaching the last qualifying round.

But that show is possibly amended explained by a determination to enlistee European players with Indonesian practice alternatively than relying connected homegrown talent.

"At times determination were 8 oregon 9 European-born players successful Indonesia's starting XI," says Jerome Wirawan, News Editor astatine the BBC's Indonesian service.

Pakistan and Bangladesh exited the Asian qualifiers astatine the radical stage, with nary wins successful six matches. Pakistan was besides banned from planetary shot 3 times by Fifa betwixt 2017 and 2025 for governmental infighting successful its governing body.

Enjoying the enactment - 1 mode oregon another

So, for shot fans of galore countries, World Cup glory whitethorn look a agelong mode off.

In the meantime, Karim says, the consolation prize is simply to bask the party.

"In airy of reality, I bash not spot immoderate anticipation of seeing Bangladesh play a World Cup successful my lifetime."

"But Bangladeshi shot fans volition inactive privation to acquisition each spot of the joyousness of the tournament."

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