Democrats cautiously optimistic about chance to flip Northern Nevada House seat

Editor's note: Este artículo está traducido al español.

The contention successful Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District, a spot nary Democrat has ever won, appears to beryllium tighter than it has been successful years — though indicators inactive constituent toward Republican David Flippo beating Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson successful November.

A July survey from Wedgewood Polling, a steadfast with small polling history, showed Benitez-Thompson starring Flippo by 2 points. The illustration was tiny — 350 respondents. Benitez-Thompson, a Reno resident, served from 2016 to 2022 arsenic bulk person of the Nevada Assembly.

Flippo’s run manager, Woodrow Johnston, was blunt astir the firm’s credibility, pointing to different Wedgewood canvass that had Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo winning 85% of the Black ballot against Attorney General Aaron Ford, the Democratic nominee, successful his reelection bid.

“Joe Lombardo, who I enactment — and I privation this portion was existent — but I don’t deliberation he’s getting 80% of African Americans,” Johnston said. “I conscionable don’t deliberation that’s imaginable against an African American lawyer general.”

Prediction markets — which UNLV prof David Damore says thin to beryllium much close than accepted governmental polls — inactive springiness Flippo a 75% accidental of winning.

Still, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the territory to its database of “Districts successful Play” for the midterm elections soon aft the Wedgewood canvass was released July 21. Usually, the nationalist radical gives the Republican stronghold territory small attention.

“With a anemic Republican nominee and a fired-up electorate that’s fed up with skyrocketing costs, Democrats person the archetypal accidental successful decades to vie successful Northern Nevada and flip this seat,” U.S. Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., the committee’s chairwoman, said successful a quality release.

Congressional District 2 covers astir of Northern Nevada. It takes successful Carson City, on with Churchill, Douglas, Elko, Eureka, Humboldt, Lander, Pershing, Storey, Washoe and White Pine counties successful full, positive astir of Lyon County and a portion of Lincoln County.

U.S. Rep. Mark Amodei, who has held the spot for 15 years, announced a astonishment status successful February. In 2024, helium claimed 55% of the vote, winning by much than 75,000 votes. In 2022, it was 59.7% of the ballot — helium received 185,467 votes; Democratic challenger Elizabeth Mercedes Krause grabbed 117,371.

The district, created aft the 1980 census, has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7 and has ne'er elected a Democrat; Jill Derby came closest successful 2006, losing to Dean Heller by astir 5 points.

“You ne'er get a canvass successful that district,” Damore said. “Because they’re conscionable not competitive.”

What’s antithetic this cycle, according to Damore, is simply a operation of factors: a well-known Democratic candidate, an unfastened seat, a contested GOP superior and a Republican incumbent who has conspicuously withheld his endorsement from the party’s nominee.

Flippo, with an endorsement from President Donald Trump, won the Republican superior implicit James Settelmeyer, a erstwhile authorities lawmaker and Lombardo’s manager of the Nevada Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, with 45% of the vote. Flippo received 33,002 votes; Settelmeyer had 25,497.

Flippo is simply a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and fiscal advisor who has ne'er held elected office. In an interrogation this period with “Nevada Newsmakers,” Amodei said determination was “no way” he’d endorse Flippo. The 2 haven’t adjacent talked.

Of 535 members of Congress, astatine slightest 82 incumbents, similar Amodei, volition not instrumentality to their seats adjacent term. This is 1 of the highest totals astatine this constituent successful the calendar since President Barack Obama’s administration, according to an Associated Press investigation of legislature turnover dating to 2013.

Some are seeking different offices, portion others are retiring aft decades of service. A fewer members are departing alternatively of moving successful unfamiliar districts aft their state’s leaders redrew the boundaries during an antithetic mid-decade flurry of redistricting.

In the U.S. House, 70 existent representatives — 30 Democrats and 40 Republicans — volition not beryllium backmost adjacent term.

“There’s been a ton of enactment from radical wrong the district,” Benitez-Thompson said. “It’s continuing to turn each azygous day. It truly reflects an appetite for alteration astatine the grassroots level.”

Flippo lone moved to Northern Nevada months agone aft Amodei announced his retirement. And helium wasn’t excessively fashionable successful Southern Nevada, losing to John Lee successful the 2024 Republican superior for the 4th Congressional District. In 2022, helium fell successful the Republican superior for a spot successful the Nevada Assembly.

He precocious to the wide predetermination against Benitez-Thompson with Trump’s backing, though Damore cautioned that won’t warrant a triumph successful November.

“He’s ever spent his clip talking to, you know, going to MAGA rallies and talking to that portion of the constituency,” Damore said. “That’s an important 1 to triumph the primary, but you’ve got to bash a batch much to present yourself up there.”

That’s not a occupation for Benitez-Thompson, who was archetypal elected to the Assembly successful 2010 and near bureau aft being term-limited successful 2022. After leaving the Assembly, Benitez-Thompson served arsenic main of unit to Ford until she near his bureau to tally for Congress.

She’s said she was acceptable to correspond the territory successful Washington due to the fact that “I’ve been advocating for Northern Nevada’s needs for a agelong time.”