College football betting: ASU, LSU seem better than their stats show

By Tyler Shoemaker VSiN September 14, 2026 - 2:50 pm The T Shoe Index, a proprietary model that converts raw box‑score data into an expected outcome based on a game’s core predictive statistics, continues to generate adjusted scores that reveal where teams may be over‑ or under‑valued by the market. Early in the season, it remains prudent to avoid overreacting to any single result, yet these adjusted figures can highlight squads whose true performance diverges from the final score. **Arizona State vs. Kansas** Arizona State fell 48‑20 to Texas A&M on the road, but the T Shoe Index suggests the Aggies should have prevailed by only 28‑21. That sizable gap between the actual and adjusted margins signals that the Sun Devils’ performance was better than the scoreboard indicates. Kansas, meanwhile, posted a 38‑20 loss to Missouri; the index projects a closer 38‑17 defeat for the Jayhawks, implying their adjusted output was even poorer than the final score shows. Although Arizona State did not play well enough to secure a win in College Station, the 28‑point deficit exaggerated the extent of its shortcomings. Such discrepancies often create betting value when the market reacts to the raw score without fully accounting for game flow. The index currently lists Arizona State as a nine‑point favorite. On‑field‑only grades—derived from a limited sample and therefore to be used cautiously—rate the Sun Devils roughly 24 points superior to Kansas thus far. That pronounced difference is unlikely to be erased entirely by the market this early in the season. Kansas has yet to demonstrate consistent form over its first two weeks that would warrant aggressive short‑side wagering on the Jayhawks. Accordingly, the preference leans toward Arizona State in this matchup. *Best bet:* Arizona State -5½ (play to -6½) **LSU vs. Ole Miss** Lane Kiffin’s much‑anticipated return to Oxford, Mississippi, as LSU’s head coach follows a turbulent departure from Ole Miss, guaranteeing an emotionally charged atmosphere that quantitative metrics cannot fully capture. Consequently, attention turns to the analyzable data. Both squads navigated last week’s contests against overmatched Group of Six opponents with relative ease. In Week 1, each secured victories accompanied by narrow point spreads. LSU’s showing against Clemson ranks among the season’s most impressive performances, whereas Ole Miss’ triumph over Louisville was projected by the T Shoe Index to be a one‑point loss. That projection does not negate Ole Miss’ capacity to win, especially on home soil in what should be one of the week’s more emotionally fraught encounters. However, the market may be over‑crediting the Rebels for the Louisville outcome, while LSU’s underlying play has been stronger than its raw scoring margin suggests. The T Shoe Index positions the “Lane Train” as an 11‑point favorite. LSU’s adjusted scoring advantage exceeds the scoreboard by eight points, whereas Ole Miss’ two contests have unfolded largely as anticipated, leaving the Rebels’ adjusted margin just one point above their actual scoring differential. In sum, LSU remains somewhat undervalued by the betting public. Emotions will run high on both sides, but Kiffin is likely to seek a decisive edge over Ole Miss and have his squad prepared to capitalize. *Best bet:* LSU -3 or better