Aces’ playoff picture: 3 teams Las Vegas could face in 1st round

The Las Vegas Aces have secured a top‑four seed and early home‑court advantage with their win over the Sparks, leaving just one regular‑season game to settle their first‑round opponent. Three teams remain in contention to face the Aces when the playoffs open at Michelob Ultra Arena. If the standings hold as they are, Las Vegas will host the Washington Mystics in the opening round, marking the franchises’ second postseason meeting. The clubs last collided in the 2019 playoffs, before Becky Hammon assumed the Aces head‑coaching role and during the team’s inaugural playoff run after moving to Las Vegas. Washington captured its first WNBA championship that year by defeating the Aces 3‑1 in the semifinals. This season Las Vegas won the regular‑season series 2‑1, with at least one victory coming on its home floor. Washington boasts three players averaging more than 15 points per game, led by forward Shakira Austin at 17.2 points per contest. Guard Sonia Citron dishes out 4.4 assists per game, while forward Kiki Iriafen pulls down 9.5 rebounds per outing. A win in the Mystics’ final regular‑season game would give them a four‑game winning streak heading into the postseason. Washington has played hot basketball down the stretch, mirroring the Aces’ potential to close the year with seven straight victories should they triumph in their finale. Another possible first‑round foe is the Indiana Fever, spearheaded by Caitlyn Clark. A week ago such a matchup seemed unlikely, but a grueling stretch to close the regular season has slipped Indiana down the standings. Five of the Fever’s last eight games have come against playoff teams, and they have dropped three of those four contests to the Dallas Wings, New York Liberty and the Mystics. Indiana presently occupies the No. 5 seed but is enduring a two‑game skid against the league‑leading Minnesota Lynx. Should Indiana lose its finale while Washington wins, the two teams would tie in the standings; Washington holds the tiebreaker, pushing Indiana to the No. 6 seed. The Fever split their back‑to‑back series with Minnesota, taking the opener before the Lynx rested most starters in the second half after falling behind by double digits. With Minnesota’s playoff position already set, Minnesota may mirror that approach in the season finale. Guard Kelsey Mitchell paces Indiana in scoring at 25 points per game, Clark leads the team with 8.5 assists per game, and forward Aliyah Boston tops the squad with 8.1 rebounds per outing. Las Vegas holds a 22‑5 advantage over Indiana since 2018, including its sole playoff series victory over the Fever in last year’s semifinals. The Dallas Wings could become the Aces’ opening‑round adversary if Las Vegas climbs to the No. 2 seed. The Aces cannot fall below the No. 3 seed, but they remain in position to move up to No. 2 after the Golden State Valkyries’ overtime loss to the Portland Fire on Tuesday. That result creates an opening for Las Vegas to reclaim the second seed via the head‑to‑head tiebreaker. Should the Aces secure the No. 2 slot, they would draw the No. 7 seed in the first round while retaining home‑court advantage at least through the semifinals. That position is trending toward Dallas, given the remaining schedule for the bottom three seeds and the Wings’ tiebreaker edge over the New York Liberty, who sit just below them in the standings. This season Dallas won the regular‑season series 2‑1 over Las Vegas, although the Aces’ lone victory came at home in a 99‑84 outing—the highest point total either team posted in the matchup. The clubs have met only once in postseason play, during the Aces’ run to a second straight title in 2023, when Las Vegas swept the Wings in the semifinals.