Who will win the World Cup? BBC pundits make their predictions

ByChris Bevan

BBC Sport journalist

The World Cup starts successful Mexico City's Azteca Stadium connected Thursday and finishes successful the MetLife Stadium adjacent New York City connected 19 July.

Forty-eight teams volition contention the tournament, which volition beryllium played retired successful 104 matches crossed 3 countries implicit 39 days, including the co-hosts - Canada, Mexico and the United States - positive holders Argentina.

Who volition get their hands connected the celebrated golden trophy this time? Who are the different main contenders? And however volition England and Scotland do?

BBC Sport's TV and vigor shot pundits and co-commentators person predicted what volition hap implicit the adjacent 5 weeks, and we person asked AI and Opta's 'supercomputer' for their picks too.

Alan Shearer: France, but there's a caveat that comes with it - lone if determination is nary in-house fighting. With the quality they person successful guardant positions, 2 oregon 3 large players are going to beryllium near retired each game, truthful it volition travel down to whether they header with that successful the close way.

Danny Murphy: It's hard to look past France with the firepower they have, erstwhile you deliberation astir other clip successful blistery upwind against bushed legs.

The likes of Rayan Cherki, Ousmane Dembele and Desire Doue can't each start, but they tin beryllium gamechangers if they travel connected aft 70 minutes successful 30 degrees heat.

Olivier Giroud: For maine the 2 strongest teams are France and Spain. But volition they conscionable each different successful the last oregon before? That volition beryllium the question, but I evidently anticipation France volition win.

Wayne Rooney: England and Spain volition marque the final, and hopefully England volition triumph it.

Thomas Frank: France are up determination of course, and Spain excessively due to the fact that they are precise wide successful however they play. That gives them a monolithic strength, though I inactive uncertainty them a small due to the fact that they trust connected Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams arsenic the wingers and, if they don't person them, I americium not definite they person capable idiosyncratic prime to bash it successful the end.

Along with Brazil, Argentina, England and Portugal, they are the main contenders. A batch of radical are saying it is France oregon Spain, but for maine it is betwixt Brazil and England... and I americium saying England!

Micah Richards: How teams woody with the humidity is going to play a large portion astatine this tournament, truthful the South American teams volition beryllium strong.

But I conscionable consciousness it's going to beryllium a squad who are truly bully astatine keeping the shot and that points maine successful the absorption of Spain instead. Argentina volition spell adjacent though, due to the fact that of the mode they enactment for Lionel Messi. I inactive deliberation helium tin bash thing special, too.

Steph Houghton: Hopefully it's England but, looking astatine different teams, France person truthful overmuch prime close done their squad - particularly successful attacking areas.

Gael Clichy: France, Spain and England are the 3 for maine who volition bash well. Spain look to triumph everything, astatine each property group, truthful of people they are up there, but being French I americium going for them to triumph it.

Joe Hart: England. But I americium not really that bothered whether I americium close oregon wrong. I conscionable similar to backmost my radical and I privation England to bash it.

Martin Keown: Looking astatine the draw, determination volition beryllium immoderate implicit blockbuster quarter-finals if the favourites triumph their groups, similar England versus Brazil and Argentina against Portugal - oregon Messi against Cristiano Ronaldo.

Is this the hardest World Cup determination has ever been to win? Maybe. It feels precise open. My caput is telling maine the champion squad is France, my bosom is telling maine that it could beryllium England.

Paul Robinson: The lone happening that stops France from winning it is France. They volition request a harmonious dressing room.

Pat Nevin: This is simply a guess, but England person a existent chance. Along with France, they are my favourites and it's a toss-up betwixt the 2 arsenic to who volition triumph it.

I besides wouldn't beryllium shocked if we get a left-field victor this time, and Morocco are the ones who leap retired astatine me, due to the fact that I covered astir of their games erstwhile they reached the past 4 successful Qatar. From what I hear, they mightiness beryllium amended present than they were past - and they were large then. They volition beryllium utilized to the vigor too, which ever helps.

Ellen White: Well, evidently I privation England to triumph it. That's what I americium going with, but if that wasn't to hap past France person a precise bully squad.

Tony Pulis: It's ridiculous that determination are 48 teams, and 40 much games than past time. Fair play to each the countries that are going, everyone volition bask it, but shot astatine this level is present being utilized arsenic a currency cow.

I've got Argentina, Brazil, France, England, Morocco, Portugal, Spain and Senegal arsenic my quarter-finalists. My prime to triumph it? France.

Chris Sutton: Spain are an outstanding squad but I've gone for France to triumph the past 2 World Cups and I wasn't acold wrong. I americium not going to alteration my caput present - they didn't truly click astatine the past Euros but I look astatine their frontline and deliberation they volition beryllium hard to stop.

Who volition triumph the 2026 World Cup? Total votes

France (9): Scott Brown, Gael Clichy, Rachel Corsie, Olivier Giroud, Danny Murphy, Paul Robinson, Tony Pulis, Alan Shearer & Chris Sutton

England (7): Thomas Frank, Joe Hart, Steph Houghton, Martin Keown, Wayne Rooney, Sue Smith & Ellen White

Spain (1): Micah Richards

Thomas Frank: To triumph the World Cup you request idiosyncratic quality, and England person decidedly got that. Their midfield is precise beardown and if they tin enactment the close defence unneurotic it is beardown enough.

They person a existent chance. The squad volition beryllium good structured due to the fact that Thomas Tuchel is simply a apical coach, positive they person acquisition successful these tournaments and I americium definite they volition get their togetherness close due to the fact that they look to person immoderate fantastic characters and leaders successful the group.

Ellen White: We've got an unbelievable squad, and I consciousness similar Tuchel volition make a bully blend successful our team. We besides person immoderate large players, who person a batch of momentum - similar Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka who person conscionable won the Premier League with Arsenal.

Steph Houghton: As good arsenic experience, we've got immoderate prime young players coming through. The lone happening that worries maine is simply a deficiency of crippled clip for immoderate players successful our antiaircraft unit, similar John Stones oregon Reece James.

Alan Shearer: I don't deliberation we volition triumph it, but we tin marque the semi-finals due to the fact that of the quality we have, positive we person a manager who is not going to beryllium acrophobic to marque large decisions and permission definite players out. I americium not definite that has ever been the case.

Hopefully helium tin get the champion retired of Harry Kane, similar Bayern Munich person done this play erstwhile they person had players moving past him. My conjecture is that Morgan Rogers, Saka and Marcus Rashford volition play, and determination are much goals determination for England - they person each scored goals each season.

Wayne Rooney: I'm going with Kane to get the Golden Boot.

Chris Sutton: I interest a spot astir England's defence, but you spell done their squad and they don't person excessively galore weaknesses.

Sue Smith: England person an elite manager who knows however to triumph things. The squad is picked connected togetherness and balance, but inactive has the prima prime to succeed.

Danny Murphy: It would beryllium a disappointment not to marque the semi-finals with the prime we person got. I deliberation we are a spot excessively reliant connected Kane. Lots of large teams are reliant connected 1 goalscorer but erstwhile you look astatine the different players successful the squad, nary of them person been prolific oregon adjacent accordant for England.

At the back, I wouldn't person america down arsenic being arsenic bully arsenic France and Spain either. But being weaker defensively than we are offensively doesn't mean that we are not susceptible of winning it, if the luck goes our way.

Martin Keown: England person perchance got the toughest of immoderate last-16 tie, if we extremity up playing Mexico astatine the Azteca Stadium [if some teams triumph their groups and bushed third-placed teams successful the past 32]. Talk astir vantage Mexico, taking into relationship altitude and clime and what that mightiness instrumentality from the England team. Then we've astir apt got Argentina oregon Portugal successful the semi-finals if they advancement arsenic expected too.

But, immoderate happens with the draw, I consciousness similar the chemistry and equilibrium of the radical volition beryllium the important factor. Winning the World Cup ever seems to travel down to a portion of brilliance, and Tuchel has near retired 1 oregon 2 maverick players who are susceptible of that due to the fact that of his absorption connected the group, but that doesn't mean we can't inactive triumph it.

England are precise overmuch successful this fight. We are going to a World Cup which is astir apt the astir unfastened successful surviving memory, due to the fact that of the prime connected offer, and we person a squad present that dominates the ball.

Micah Richards: For England to triumph it, everyone is going to person to beryllium astatine their best, and it feels similar different countries person got players successful amended signifier close now. I really deliberation we are champion placed to triumph the adjacent Euros, successful 2028. All our apical players volition beryllium successful their premier then, isolated from Kane who volition astir apt person retired.

Paul Robinson: There are players successful this England squad present that person played successful these large games before, truthful that mightiness conscionable beryllium the missing constituent that gets america implicit the enactment this time.

We accidental it each clip we spell to a tourney - that connected their time we are susceptible of beating anyone, but thing has been missing. Now? That big-game mentality is there.

Joe Hart: England are 100% successful the conversation. They are a apical team, and they person made bully progression - hopefully this tourney volition beryllium the one.

Pat Nevin: The interest for Scotland is that 2 of the favourites, for maine anyway, successful Brazil and Morocco are successful their group. It means their full program depends connected beating Haiti successful their archetypal game. Everyone successful Scotland knows it, and the manager does too. So, they cannot commencement pragmatically - they person to deed the crushed with an implicit sprint.

Can they bash it? Well they person had a bully build-up and the large crushed I americium precise hopeful is that erstwhile we played against Germany successful the archetypal crippled of the 2024 European Championship we looked exhausted, and immoderate of our champion players weren't afloat fit.

That is not the lawsuit this time. John McGinn is flying. I've watched Scott McTominay and helium is successful bonzer signifier for Napoli conscionable now, and Lawrence Shankland is firing successful the goals.

OK, we person mislaid Billy Gilmour to wounded but, successful reality, Scotland look to maine arsenic if they are the strongest they've been since Steve Clarke took complaint successful 2019 and that is down to injuries, oregon players being near retired and getting rest. Andy Robertson looks successful superb nick due to the fact that helium has lone played fractional a play astatine Liverpool. It's precisely the aforesaid with McGinn, who was retired for a fewer weeks astatine the commencement of the year.

Chris Sutton: Scotland volition bushed Haiti - it is conscionable however Steve Clarke goes astir it and whether helium goes with 2 up top, which I deliberation is worthy the hazard successful this game.

Ben Gannon-Doak is going to beryllium important for them - helium didn't commencement a Premier League crippled for Bournemouth past play but helium gives them that spot of dynamism erstwhile everyone volition beryllium focusing connected McTominay successful the mediate of the park, and McGinn.

Most radical are reasoning Brazil and Morocco are nailed-on to beryllium the apical 2 successful Group C, but I really deliberation Scotland could nick a constituent disconnected 1 of them too. It mightiness dependable far-fetched but they could decorativeness higher than third.

Alan Shearer: If you triumph 1 radical crippled past the likelihood is you are going to marque the past 32, and Scotland's accidental is against Haiti. With their fans down them - they volition person a brainsick pursuing arsenic accustomed from the Tartan Army - they tin bash it.

Tony Pulis: Scotland person got a grounds of doing things they shouldn't bash astatine World Cups, but they can't neglect against Haiti... surely?

Scott Brown: We volition get 3 points and get retired of our group. The archetypal crippled against Haiti would beryllium a bully 1 to get that done, but it won't beryllium arsenic casual arsenic everyone thinks.

Steph Houghton: It's a pugnacious radical for them but I deliberation they volition marque it retired of there, and they volition judge they tin bash thing special. They person existent idiosyncratic prime successful a fewer positions and, arsenic a group, they cognize what benignant of squad they are and play to their strengths.

Rachel Corsie: We volition get retired of our group, and I deliberation we volition get done 1 much crippled aft that. Then, who knows?

Sue Smith: They tin marque the past 16.

Ellen White: If they tin enactment successful a large show against Haiti and springiness themselves immoderate momentum and assurance past that tin get them into the knockout rounds.

Thomas Frank: I americium going for Norway. They person immoderate well-known Premier League players similar Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard but they besides person others who tin alteration games - Alexander Sorloth of Atletico Madrid, Antonio Nusa astatine RB Leipzig and Oscar Bobb of Fulham, who is simply a truly apical talent.

It is their archetypal World Cup since 1998 truthful they volition travel with a thrust and a hunger too. I cognize everyone volition bash that erstwhile they travel to this tournament, but it is conscionable antithetic erstwhile you person not been determination for truthful long. Scotland volition person that enthusiasm too, but they bash not person the aforesaid idiosyncratic quality.

Paul Robinson: Saudi Arabia volition astonishment a batch of people. I screen the Saudi Pro League each week and I cognize their players wrong out. We saw what Al-Hilal did astatine past year's Club World Cup, beating Manchester City and drafting with Real Madrid, and I tin spot Saudi Arabia bringing that to this tournament.

Turkey volition beryllium pugnacious to bushed and portion I cognize Belgium and the Netherlands are not precisely outsiders, they are not among the favourites either. No-one is truly talking astir them but they some person a premix of acquisition and younger players and they volition beryllium blessed going nether the radar astatine the moment.

Ellen White: I americium looking guardant to watching Norway, and Japan did good erstwhile they bushed England successful March.

Rachel Corsie: Turkey could beryllium tricky for some, and I don't cognize if this is truly a astonishment but I deliberation Japan could spell beyond wherever their satellite ranking of 18 suggests.

Steph Houghton: Japan. I truly liked the mode they played astatine Wembley.

Olivier Giroud: One of the African teams. Maybe Ivory Coast, Senegal oregon Ghana - each unsafe connected their day.

Alan Shearer: Morocco could upset immoderate of the big-hitters, similar they did erstwhile they bushed Spain and Portugal to scope the semi-finals successful 2022, but my interest for this World Cup is that the fig of teams could dilute the prime successful the aboriginal stages. There could beryllium a batch of tedious games, until we get to knockout football.

Danny Murphy: The underdogs who bash good are usually based connected a beardown defence, similar Morocco were past time. Ecuador person got players similar Chelsea's Moises Caicedo, Willian Pacho of Paris St-Germain and Arsenal's Piero Hincapie and they had an unthinkable antiaircraft grounds successful qualification, positive they volition beryllium utilized to playing successful humidity.

Wayne Rooney: Norway could bash rather well, and I similar Ecuador too.

Martin Keown: Ecuador volition instrumentality immoderate beating. When I've watched them they ever support things precise tight.

Chris Sutton: I americium not definite Ecuador volition people capable goals with 36-year-old Enner Valencia starring their enactment but they are 1 of my picks, on with Japan.

I became a spot of a personage successful Japan erstwhile I correctly backed them to bushed Germany astatine the past World Cup, oregon astatine slightest I appeared connected TV implicit determination to speech astir it anyway. They person got immoderate fantabulous method players and volition beryllium dangerous, whoever they play.

Joe Hart: I americium not truly a person of acheronian horses. When it comes to immoderate necktie I ever privation the main squad to win, and it volition beryllium a beauteous akin feeling erstwhile I ticker this tournament. I privation everyone to spell retired determination and explicit themselves, person a wicked time... but yet I don't privation anyone to get successful the mode of England!

Gael Clichy: Switzerland are a precise dynamic radical of young players, and their squad and federation has progressed a batch successful the past 8 years oregon so. I person played determination truthful I person been pursuing them, and I'd similar them to beryllium the astonishment of this tournament.

Sue Smith: I americium going for the US arsenic the hosts who volition spell further than radical think.

Tony Pulis: Japan mightiness person a bully tally astatine it and Norway, Morocco and Senegal are my different outsiders to watch.

You've work what our adept humans think, but what astir the machines?

Opta's 'supercomputer' tin archer you your team's nonstop chances of winning immoderate contention astatine immoderate fixed time.

It is really a analyzable algorithm that uses a exemplary based connected betting-market likelihood and the sports analytics company's ain 'Power Rankings', which are calculated utilizing past results.

For this World Cup, it has simulated the result of the tourney 25,000 times - and has calculated Spain are the astir apt winners (in 16.1% of the simulations).

France (13%), England (11.2%) and Argentina (10.4%) are besides fixed beardown chances of glory. Scotland? Not truthful much.

Clarke's broadside are down the database successful 33rd place, with lone a 0.2% accidental of winning the World Cup according to Opta, but connected the upside, successful the aforesaid simulations they got retired of Group C two-thirds (66.1%) of the time.

AI has besides had its say. Its prediction was generated utilizing Microsoft Copilot Chat - we simply asked the instrumentality 'who volition triumph the World Cup and however volition England and Scotland do?'

Copilot Chat says Spain volition triumph it, England volition scope the semi-finals and Scotland volition spell retired successful the radical stage, contempt finishing 3rd successful their group.

Do you disagree with our experts? Think algorithms are for boffins, not for football? You tin prime your winners below.