3 hours ago 8 minutes ago
Stephanie Hegarty,Population analogous and Zsofia Paulikovics,BBC News Magyarul
BBC
Sitting connected a parkland seat successful the eastbound Hungarian metropolis of Debrecen, Barbara Elek is nervously refreshing her emails. She and her hubby Levi are waiting to find retired if Barbara is pregnant, aft their 3rd circular of IVF 10 days ago.
"If it doesn't succeed, past evidently I'll beryllium devastated, and past the past edifice volition beryllium trying to marque definite that, astatine slightest financially, we don't suffer everything," she says.
Like galore different young Hungarian couples Barbara, 33, a societal idiosyncratic and Levi, 34, a chef, were eligible for tens of thousands of pounds successful interest-free loans and subsidies erstwhile they promised to person 2 children. But they've struggled to get large people and if they can't beryllium they person a kid connected the mode by 1 November past it is imaginable they whitethorn person to wage backmost those loans with punishment interest.
The mates took retired a 10 million‑forint (£25,000) indebtedness connected the committedness of having 2 children. Under rules introduced by Hungary's erstwhile government, they could beryllium asked to repay punishment involvement of betwixt 1.5 and 3.5 cardinal forint (£3,700-£8,600), thing they accidental they can't afford. They besides person a owe subsidy with akin terms.
In 2010, past premier curate of Hungary Viktor Orbán embarked connected immoderate of the astir ambitious pronatalist policies successful the satellite - paying radical to have, oregon committedness to have, children. Hungary's fertility is good beneath the replacement level of 2.1 babies per pistillate needed to support the native-born colonisation dependable - a fig that accounts for those children who don't past to adulthood. And connected apical of that, determination person been precocious levels of emigration and debased immigration.
Reuters
When Viktor Orbán was re‑elected successful 2010, Hungary's fertility complaint was among the lowest successful Europe
It's not conscionable a Hungarian issue. Across Europe, fertility rates person been beneath the level needed to support the colonisation unchangeable without migration since the 1980s. Today, the aforesaid is existent successful much than fractional of each countries, location to astir two‑thirds of the world's population.
When Orbán was re‑elected successful 2010, Hungary's fertility complaint was among the lowest successful Europe. His party, Fidesz, promised to tackle colonisation decline. "In the West, the reply to this is immigration. You bring successful arsenic galore arsenic you're missing. Hungarians deliberation differently. We don't request numbers, we request Hungarian children."
Orbán, who was voted retired of bureau successful April this year, rolled retired extended taxation breaks, interest-free loans and owe subsidies to young couples who promised to person children. There are besides subsidies to bargain a bigger car oregon renovate your home. The incentives were lone disposable to married, heterosexual couples and those successful the ceremonial occupation market.
At 1 point, it seemed each of this was pushing Hungarians to reproduce. The fertility complaint roseate from 1.25 successful 2010 to 1.59 by 2020.
Hungary, for a time, was hailed arsenic a large occurrence communicative by immoderate - particularly US conservatives. But past the fertility complaint began to driblet and successful 2025 it had fallen to 1.31, not overmuch higher than erstwhile these incentives archetypal launched.
"Judged by the aims of the policies, this is intelligibly a failure," says Tomas Sobotka, from the Vienna Institute of Demography.
So wherefore did Hungary's pronatalist attack present an aboriginal emergence successful births lone past to autumn back? And what lessons does it connection to different countries hopeless to assistance fertility?
Pronatalist policies successful Hungary
One presumption is that Hungary's statistic constituent to a success. With fertility falling crossed Europe implicit the past decade, they reason the country's policies whitethorn person staved disconnected adjacent greater decline.
Fruzsina Skrabski, of the pro-family NGO Three Princes, Three Princesses, believes without these policies "there would beryllium hundreds of thousands of less children". She is "certain it led to much children being born, conscionable not capable to reverse the trend".
Maté, 43, and Agi Gorondy, 37, who unrecorded successful the suburbs of Budapest, wholeheartedly agree. They person 5 children each nether 10 years aged - and accidental they whitethorn person much - and they recognition Hungary's family-friendly environment. The mates took vantage of generous maternity pay, interest-free babe loans and subsidies to assistance renovate their location and bargain a bigger car. Maté, a freelance concern developer, benefits from taxation cuts. And arsenic a parent of much than 2 children, Agi volition wage nary income taxation astatine each if she returns to work.
"I deliberation there's been a alteration successful the past 16 years. In this neighbourhood… four- oregon five-child families are nary longer rare," Maté says. Statistically determination was an summation successful families with 3 oregon much children successful Hungary successful the 2010s, peaking successful 2020 astatine 146,000. By 2024 that was down to 125,000.
"In this neighbourhood… 4 oregon five-child families are nary longer rare," Mate says
Timothy P Carney, a elder chap astatine the American Enterprise Institute, who has written respective books connected fertility decline, believes 1 of Orbán's successes was that helium enactment family, and supporting families, astatine the centre of the governmental narrative. He points to the "Family-Friendly Hungary" messaging, emblazoned successful the arrivals hallway astatine Budapest airport.
Others accidental the benefits landed unevenly. Prof János Tóth, a philosopher studying demographic issues astatine Hungary's University of Szeged, believes the incentives worked particularly good for 1 peculiar radical - the little mediate people successful the countryside. But successful the cities, wherever fertility is lowest, the wealth conscionable doesn't spell arsenic far. He believes the "baby-expecting loan" of 10 cardinal forint (£25,000) did initially assistance galore young couples to commencement a family, but soaring ostentation has eroded its value.
"Every state has this occupation of debased fertility successful cities," helium says. In his view, Hungary has to bash much to assistance radical to person their archetypal child, alternatively than focusing connected persuading those who already person children to person much - "the archetypal kid is the astir important".
Eva Fodor, co-director of the Democracy Institute astatine the Central European University, questions however overmuch quality the policies made.
"It seems that these policies were effectual for a small while, similar astir pronatalist policies are," she says. She believes they prompted a cohort of radical to person children they would person had anyway, conscionable a small earlier than planned. "So the fertility complaint went up for a while, for a twelvemonth oregon two, and past it started falling again."
But Hungary's emergence and autumn successful fertility whitethorn person had small to bash with its policies astatine all, and simply mirrored wider trends crossed eastbound Europe. The Czech Republic, for example, did not present specified expansive pronatalist measures yet saw a akin boost and past a akin decline.
For galore parents, the existent obstruction whitethorn not beryllium finances but the basal services they beryllium on. Antonia Miskolczi, a 29-year-old parent successful Budapest, says her interest implicit Hungary's healthcare strategy mattered acold much to her decision‑making than immoderate fiscal incentive.
"I was really terrified of childbirth," Antonia says. She watched TikTok videos informing expectant mothers to bring their ain toilet insubstantial and disinfectant to the infirmary and says respective relatives had a unspeakable experience. She had her lad astatine a backstage hospital.
Antonia and her hubby Marton utilized respective benefits to person their archetypal child, but says it hasn't changed their program to person lone 1 more. "I don't deliberation large promises are needed. Just hole the fundamentals and the willingness to person children volition increase," she says. "Improving acquisition and healthcare should beryllium the precise archetypal measurement if radical are going to consciousness comfy having children."
"I was really terrified of childbirth," Antonia says
In 2019, Eva Fodor interviewed 21 well-educated middle-class Hungarian women, who enactment successful nonrecreational jobs successful authorities administration, to find if authorities enactment prompted them to person a child. She recovered astir saw it "as a one-time payment, not arsenic a semipermanent concern into raising children."
"What they truly request is institutions and wellness attraction systems and childcare, which they deemed insufficient," she says. Though Hungary did grow entree to childcare and invested successful healthcare, Fodor says galore women inactive felt it wasn't enough.
Hungary was acold from unsocial successful trying to reverse falling commencement rates. South Korea, for example, had a fertility complaint of 1.19 successful 2008 - 1 of the lowest successful the world. Since then, it has spent much than £215bn trying to get its colonisation to person much babies. Parents get an upfront "baby bonus" of £20,000-£30,000 erstwhile their kid is born, arsenic good arsenic generous kid payment allowances each month. They besides get vouchers to assistance with backstage childcare.
But South Korea's full fertility complaint continued to diminution successful that time, reaching 0.8 successful 2025.
Fertility has fallen successful astir countries since the pandemic, a displacement galore experts judge is driven by much than economics. Demographer Tomas Sobotka argues that lockdowns, vaccination campaigns that whitethorn person prompted women to hold gestation and a wide consciousness of instability each worked to enactment radical disconnected having children. "Fertility tends to diminution due to the fact that radical don't person assurance successful the future," helium says.
The warfare successful Ukraine and a planetary surge successful ostentation created caller shocks, and Sobotka notes that the countries closest to the struggle person seen the sharpest fertility declines. Globally, Sobotka argues: "People inactive consciousness insecure, uncertain astir the aboriginal due to the fact that determination are each these crises unfolding and the governmental situation is precise toxic".
In the 2000s, Sweden and immoderate of its Nordic neighbours introduced a bid of policies that boosted fertility - though that wasn't their explicit intention. Shared parental leave, affordable childcare and cosmopolitan pre-school helped to make conditions that made it easier to harvester enactment and household life. Over the adjacent decennary fertility rates successful Sweden accrued - from 1.5 to 2.0.
Many scholars thought Sweden had solved the struggle betwixt feminism and fertility by making it easier for some parents to enactment and rise a family. Then successful the 2010s fertility dropped again, leaving researchers perplexed.
But Sobotka thinks these policies insulated Nordic countries from the depths of fertility diminution seen successful East Asia. "At immoderate level, each state needs astatine slightest the Nordic argumentation bundle and possibly better," helium argues. He believes countries that marque it easier for men and women to stock enactment and attraction are acold amended protected against heavy fertility decline.
Fodor says that for its part, Hungary has "strengthened this thought that women are the superior caretakers of the family".
"Gender roles person go much rigid."
AFP via Getty Images
Hungary "strengthened this thought that women are the superior caretakers of the family," says Fodor
And it whitethorn beryllium that civilization matters much than cash. "Part of the occupation is we overestimate however overmuch finances work," says Carney. Israel, the lone state successful the OECD with a fertility complaint that is comfortably supra replacement, doesn't person peculiarly precocious levels of authorities spending connected household benefits. But it does person a beardown taste and ideological absorption connected having children - informed partially by the tendency to rebuild the Jewish colonisation aft the fearfulness of the Holocaust.
"But the government's quality to displacement civilization is precise limited," Carney warns, "And portion of the peril of the authorities weighing successful connected the civilization is it could politicise it."
In immoderate countries, that backlash is already visible. In South Korea, for example, survey probe has recovered galore young women resisting matrimony and household arsenic a protestation against what they spot arsenic patriarchal ideas of a accepted family.
France, by contrast, has resisted immoderate of Europe's fertility decline. Its complaint of 1.6 is among the highest successful the EU. It has comparatively precocious nationalist spending and a greater absorption connected work-life equilibrium than galore of its neighbours.
South Korea does not person that flexibility. "For men determination is this benignant of accepted conception of breadwinners, truthful they often travel from location precise precocious astatine night," says Sobotka. "This is punishing for some women and men, but besides for household life." Child-rearing is near to women. Women besides look "anticipatory discrimination", helium adds, "often women are either withdrawing from the labour marketplace oregon getting into part-time oregon unstable jobs astir the clip erstwhile they person kids."
Similarly, flexibility astatine enactment is not contiguous successful Hungary. "Even state-owned companies are not flexible, they bash not instrumentality into relationship the information that men and women some whitethorn person responsibilities extracurricular of the labour market," says Fodor.
The Orbán authorities spent astir 5% of GDP connected its family-friendly initiatives and they were seemingly fashionable capable that Hungary's caller person Peter Magyar didn't run connected changing them.
"We are surviving successful societies wherever parenthood is highly expensive. So immoderate antithetic countries tin bash to enactment parents and enactment families is simply a bully policy," says Sobotka.
Fodor takes a antithetic view: "If that wealth had been spent connected societal institutions and… sex equality and promoting men's relation successful home work, I deliberation a akin summation successful the fertility complaint could person been achieved."
Barbara and Levi's concern is not unique. The Hungarian National Bank reports that 1 successful 5 couples who took the loans 5 years agone didn't extremity up having children. The caller Hungarian authorities said it was reviewing these policies and looking astatine what should hap erstwhile radical instrumentality retired loans but don't person the children they said they intended to have.
"It's horrible, conscionable horrible," Levi said
Barbara's email yet came through. The embryo they had implanted hadn't survived.
"It's horrible, conscionable horrible," her hubby Levi said, holding his wife.
In family‑friendly Hungary, the mates are caught successful a strategy that promised support, but present find themselves without the household they hoped for and facing the imaginable of their fiscal stableness falling apart.
On 16 June BBC World Service is launching a Hungarian-language offer, BBC News Magyarul to service much audiences successful Central Europe with trusted journalism. BBC News Magyarul volition beryllium disposable connected the website, Facebook and Instagram.
Top representation credit: Getty Images
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