Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 18 winners against the spread

The NFL pick’em column has put together a strong regular season and, as far as teams that have contributed the most, the San Francisco 49ers deserve a spot toward the top of the list.

At least over the second half of the year, no team has come through with point-spread victories to boost the bottom line more frequently than San Francisco. I’ve picked the 49ers in all six games since quarterback Brock Purdy returned — often citing a belief the betting market was underrating his impact — including making half of them “plays.”

They’ve come through with a cover in all six.

Week 17’s Sunday night game technically brought an end to their against-the-spread winning streak as they closed 4.5-point favorites ahead of a 42-38 win over the Bears.

But they were only a 3- to 3.5-point favorite for most of the week, meaning they rewarded virtually all of their backers other than those who bet on game day.

San Francisco’s recent run, which also includes six consecutive straight-up wins as well as victories in seven of its last eight, has elevated it to play for the NFC’s No. 1 seed Saturday night hosting Seattle.

A second victory over the Seahawks this season would be a bonus after I recommended a bet on the 49ers to snag the No. 1 seed at +850 (i.e. risking $100 to win $850) in the Week 15 pick’em.

They’ve already done their part in ensuring success in this space but one more triumph sure would be nice from a futures perspective.

Read below to see how I handicap the point spread in the seminal Seattle at San Francisco game along with picks on every other Week 18 game. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 137-108-10 after a second-straight 9-6-1 record last week.   

Plays (45-42-4)

Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens To lay more than a field goal on the road, Baltimore would need to have quarterback Lamar Jackson back and healthy. There’s no definitive word on if the former two-time MVP will be back at publication time, and he hasn’t looked healthy since the start of the year when he’s played anyway.  

Tennessee Titans +12.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars The Titans’ undeniable improvement showed again last week when they led going into the fourth quarter against the Saints before melting down for a 34-26 loss as closing 1.5-point underdogs. The Jaguars are much better, of course, but this line requires paying a premium because they’re in a must-win situation and, historically, that’s a losing proposition.

Indianapolis Colts +10.5 at Houston Texans The Colts have lost six straight games dating back a week before quarterback Daniel Jones went down, but they’ve rarely been outclassed with an average defeat of less than nine points. The Texans remain limited offensively and therefore untrustworthy to lay big spreads as seen two weeks ago when they squeaked by the Raiders 23-21 as 14-point favorites.

Los Angeles Rams -7 vs. Arizona Cardinals Rams coach Sean McVay says he will play his starters despite having taken the opposite approach in past years. The betting market just must not believe him, as this spread is more than cut in half from what it would have been a week or two ago. Let’s take McVay’s word for it, especially going up against a Cardinals’ roster that’s predominantly practice squad-level players thanks season-long injury attrition.  

Las Vegas Raiders +5.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Sure, the Raiders need a loss more, but both these teams are shell units with the vast majority of difference-making players sidelined. No matter the situation, laying 5.5 points with undrafted rookie free agent quarterback Chris Oladokun and an offense that totaled only 139 yards in his first start can’t be the right play.

New York Giants +4.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys Motivation would seem to be in the Giants’ corner as they’re a young team still showing occasional flashes including pasting the Raiders 34-10 as closing 3-point favorites last week. At least they remain developmentally minded as opposed to a Cowboys side with nothing to rally around.

Leans (46-31-6)

Green Bay Packers +6.5 at Minnesota Vikings A number of second- and third-stringers have shown promise from the Packers this year, led by revelatory backup quarterback Malik Willis. They might be undermanned sitting starters, but the Vikings haven’t shown enough firepower to dispatch opponents all season especially down the stretch.   

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay wouldn’t have been this short of a favorite over Carolina at any other point of the season. It makes for a tantalizing buy-low spot with a team that, while struggling severely with eight straight against the spread losses, still has the more talented roster.  

Philadelphia Eagles -7 vs. Washington Commanders The Eagles sat starters in Week 18 last year and played without many because of injury in Week 17 and still covered in both games. An underrated aspect that’s helped lead to the Eagles emerging as one of the NFL’s most successful franchises has been their ability to build an enviable amount of depth.  

Detroit Lions +3 at Chicago Bears Despite their conflicting fates, Detroit has been better than Chicago by every all-encompassing metric this year including sitting No. 3 in the DVOA ratings to the latter’s No. 16. The Lions will be the best team to ever miss the postseason by that measure, but a team coached by Dan Campbell seems unlikely to pack it in and proceed without effort to end the season.

Buffalo Bills -7 vs. New York Jets The Bills are expected to sit many starters, but their backups might still be comfortably better than the core of Jets’ current starters that have lost four straight by an average of just less than 27 points per game. New York has only held a lead for about a quarter of game time since its midseason fire sale at the trade deadline nearly two months ago.

Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 vs. Cleveland Browns Cincinnati’s offense is up to No. 11 in the NFL by weighted DVOA — which rates recent performance heavier — riding the bump from quarterback Joe Burrow returning. Cleveland is dead-last in the same statistic, and shouldn’t be able to keep up.

Seattle Seahawks pick’em at San Francisco 49ers Seattle is the more complete team with no glaring weaknesses whereas San Francisco’s defense has been among the worst in the league after injuries to the likes of Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. The 49ers’ schedule late in the season has also been soft as last week’s victory over the Bears counts as their only win over a team with a winning record during their current win streak.   

Guesses (46-35)

Los Angeles Chargers +13 at Denver Broncos Chargers backup quarterback Trey Lance, who will get the start, has looked capable during brief flashes of play the last two years including starting Week 18 for the Cowboys last year in a 23-19 loss-but-cover to the Commanders. Los Angeles will probably not want to completely lay down and hand a divisional rival the AFC’s overall No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs. New Orleans Saints The Falcons have the best personnel of any team in the NFC South and should be ashamed of blowing so many winnable games midseason to fall out of the divisional race. The Saints are upstarts but still have a way to go, and this is a chance to sell high on the way out of the season.  

Miami Dolphins +10.5 at New England Patriots This is another case where a surcharge is being applied to the team facing actual stakes in the Patriots, which are still alive for a top seed. But there’s no guarantee that the scenario means a better performance, and the Dolphins are dangerous having already pulled three outright upsets over the second half of the season.