Two weeks out from crucial Makerfield by-election, here's how the contest is shaping up

Labour's Andy Burnham is inactive dancing delicately successful the connection helium is choosing to usage astir his ambitions, but his remarks connected the BBC's Question Time were a hop and a shimmy further than helium has stepped before.

It is worthy looking astatine his wording carefully: "I deliberation Wes Streeting seems to person launched a enactment contest, truthful if that is running, I would question to articulation it. But I'd person to transportation members of the Parliamentary Labour Party to bash the same."

Clearly Burnham is hopeless not to beryllium seen to beryllium presumptuous, astatine immoderate imaginable signifier successful this process – not slightest to the radical of the Makerfield constituency who helium needs to triumph implicit successful the adjacent mates of weeks.

Streeting, the erstwhile wellness secretary, has not formally launched a contention either, but Burnham is suggesting helium would articulation an existing contention alternatively than trigger 1 himself.

This is simply a subtle distinction, but a favoritism Burnham's allies bash constituent to – to again question to emphasise helium is not trigger happy, helium is not seeking to get up of himself.

But let's beryllium frank: Fiona Bruce and Question Time weren't successful Ashton-in-Makerfield astatine random and Andy Burnham doesn't endure from a shortage of ambition.

In information his precise notation of the imaginable of a contention goaded Downing Street into restating the premier minister's position, with a No10 spokesperson pointing retired that "the Labour Party has a process for challenging a person and it has not been triggered. The premier curate volition not locomotion distant from the mandate helium was fixed conscionable 2 years ago."

They didn't rather accidental "get mislaid Andy (at slightest for now)" but it felt conscionable a small spot similar that successful its sentiment.

The premier minister's friends proceed to emphasise Sir Keir Starmer's determination, portion acknowledging the brutal governmental world helium confronts – peculiarly if Burnham wins successful Makerfield aboriginal this month.

On Friday, the contradiction successful Burnham's presumption was connected amusement again successful an interrogation with BBC Newsnight.

He was coy erstwhile faced with questions astir becoming premier curate - but helium did outline a mates of (national) argumentation proposals, promising to instrumentality a concern complaint chopped and tackle the occupation of societal care.

He said pubs would spot 20% chopped successful their concern rates, "typically worthy astir £5,000 a year", and that helium would re-energise the societal attraction agenda, by asking Dame Louise Casey – presently carrying retired an enquiry – to nutrient her findings this year, alternatively than the projected 2028.

But what other stood retired from the Question Time exchanges?

Andy Burnham said carrying knives for spiritual reasons "needs to beryllium looked at," a statement prompted by the slayer of Henry Nowak carrying a kirpan, a Sikh sword oregon dagger.

Burnham besides said his outlook connected the question of whether determination was what immoderate telephone "two tier policing" successful the UK was shaped by the cognition of Sir Stephen Watson, Greater Manchester's Chief Constable, who helium said had made a constituent of saying a fewer years agone that helium wouldn't instrumentality the knee, for instance, to debar immoderate cognition of not treating everyone arsenic earlier the law.

Reform's campaigner Robert Kenyon was besides striking successful his repeated insistence that "violence is ne'er the answer" aft the disturbances successful Southampton earlier this week.

Kenyon's tone, accent and prime of connection was markedly antithetic from Nigel Farage's some successful the House of Commons and successful an online video helium posted.

MPs repeatedly shouted astatine Farage successful the chamber, saying helium should condemn the violence, but helium didn't.

So wherever bash the campaigns find themselves successful Makerfield, with a small nether a fortnight to spell earlier polling day?

The parties are good alert postal votes are opening to get for those who person requested them.

Labour look cautiously confident. Reform are competitive.

And Restore Britain, the enactment acceptable up by the erstwhile Reform MP Rupert Lowe, and broadly speaking challenging Reform to its right, look to beryllium showing the imaginable to spot distant astatine Reform's support.

Polling successful a azygous constituency is hard due to the fact that of the situation of uncovering a typical illustration successful a tiny area, but Survation are giving it a go.

Their latest canvass suggests enactment for Labour is astatine 49%, Reform is astatine 39% and Restore is astatine 8%.

What looks similar a steadfast pb from Labour's position is overmuch tighter erstwhile Reform and Restore's ballot is combined, hence Reform's accent locally that this is simply a 2 equine contention and a ballot for Restore could marque it easier for Labour to win.

These numbers lucifer the existing sentiment I person picked up from the 2 starring parties successful the contention - but with some saying determination is plentifulness of clip to spell and plentifulness of radical who person not yet made up their minds.