Raiders' potential draft dilemma: Winning games could cost them a chance at a franchise QB

Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Charles Snowden (49) celebrates his interception with his team during the first half of a NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns at Allegiant Stadium, Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025. Photo by: Wade Vandervort

The Las Vegas Raiders nearly pulled off an upset against the Houston Texans on Sunday.

By playing their best football in several weeks and still coming up short in the 23-21 loss, Las Vegas remained in the running for the top pick in next year's NFL draft.

If the Raiders continue to play as well as they did against the Texans, that top pick likely won't be available because their next two opponents — the New York Giants on Sunday and the Chiefs the week after — are beatable and both games are at home. The Raiders, in fact, are favored by a point over the Giants at BetMGM Sportsbook.

The Giants are tied with the Raiders for the league’s worst record at 2-13. Kansas City is down to its third-string quarterback after injuries to Patrick Mahomes and former Raider Gardner Minshew and has been eliminated from the playoff race. This is a far cry from the Chiefs championship teams of the past several seasons.

Should Las Vegas win both games, it could drop to seventh in the draft order. And, once again, not be in position to take the franchise quarterback the Raiders so badly need.

The Raiders might not be alone in hoping to land Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza if he's the first quarterback off the board as expected.

There are scenarios in which the Raiders split their final two games and still get the No. 1 pick, but those aren't likely outcomes.

Their best chance is to lose out, which won't happen if the team that showed up against Houston makes another appearance or two over the final couple of weekends of the regular season.

Coaches and players, of course, aren't wired to want to lose. The players showed on Sunday they are still playing hard for Pete Carroll, whose future with the franchise is in question. Getting the top pick means nothing to him if he's not around to make use of it.

Playing a competitive game against the Texans and showing improvement to close the season could be enough to convince owner Mark Davis to give Carroll another season.

“The intensity that we played at throughout carried over from special teams and defense and offense,” Carroll said. "That helps us in all ways, but I thought most of all, it was the intent of the guys to show who we are. I was really fired up about that part of it.”