Las Vegas buzz centers on Fernando Mendoza making his first NFL start for the Raiders, but VSiN experts advise bettors to rely on trends rather than excitement. One analyst highlights historical data showing rookie quarterbacks have struggled in Weeks 10-15 since 2008, going 110-173 straight up and 122-150-11 against the spread. Rookie starters facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more since 2015 are just 27-137 straight up and 67-93-4 against the spread. The Raiders' blowout loss last week adds another negative indicator, as teams coming off 20-point losses are 18-54-1 straight up and 31-41-1 against the spread as nonconference underdogs since 2019.
Seattle enters as a road favorite before its bye week, a historically profitable spot. Since 2009, road or neutral-site favorites facing nonconference opponents before a bye are 34-8-1 straight up and 29-13-1 against the spread. The Seahawks are also 13-2 straight up and 11-4 against the spread in pre-bye games since 2011, with seven consecutive against-the-spread wins in pre-bye nonconference games. With Las Vegas ranking last in rushing defense, Seattle should achieve offensive balance behind Drew Lock.
Another expert offers a different view, noting Mendoza faces a Seattle defense ranked No. 2 in success rate and No. 4 in EPA, leading the league in yards allowed per pass attempt at 5.48. Lock is playing through an oblique injury and the Seahawks cannot run the ball effectively, averaging 3.6 yards per carry last week. Seattle is also missing both left-side offensive linemen, Charles Cross and Quenton Nelson. Raiders coach Klint Kubiak knows Seattle's defense well from his time as their offensive coordinator last season and may implement new wrinkles including more RPOs.
With Seattle's bye week approaching and injuries mounting, the matchup presents conflicting signals for bettors weighing historical trends against current personnel situations.
Sources: Las Vegas Review-Journal
Original reporting: Las Vegas Review-Journal →
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