Grab what you can while you can: The new reality in the South China Sea

Antelope Reef is simply a small, teardrop-shaped land successful the north-western country of the South China Sea and, until recently, astir wholly underwater.

But this twelvemonth it has undergone a melodramatic transformation.

Millions of tonnes of soil person been dredged from the oversea furniture to make coagulated land. From being lone a turquoise speck connected the map, Antelope Reef present appears arsenic a 6-sq-km (2.3-sq-mile) crescent of gleaming achromatic sand, with a scattering of buildings successful 1 corner. All successful conscionable six months.

In the lagoon formed by the crescent dozens of ships tin beryllium seen. These are astir surely cutter suction dredgers, of which China has the world's largest fleet: immoderate of them tin scoop up 6,000 cubic metres an hour, capable to capable 2 Olympic-sized swimming pools.

The bonzer velocity of this dredging cognition is astir apt immoderate benignant of satellite record.

But China is not the lone 1 doing this.

After years of watching China creating onshore to backmost its expansive territorial claims Vietnam excessively is present gathering up immoderate of the reefs it holds successful the South China Sea. To a lesser grade different claimants, similar the Philippines, are doing the same.

Antelope Reef is successful the Paracel Islands, which, unneurotic with the Spratlys, are disputed territory, claimed by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei.

Most of the islands are, arsenic Antelope was until this year, submerged reefs which successful the past had nary quality settlements. China took power of the Paracels backmost successful 1974, aft a fierce conflict with what were past South Vietnamese forces.

More precocious it dredged 3 reefs successful the Spratlys - Mischief, Fiery Cross and Subi - turning them into islands large capable to conception airports and subject bases, and claiming astir the full South China Sea arsenic its sovereign territory wrong the infamous nine-dash enactment it has drawn connected the map.

Swarms of Chinese coastguard and maritime militia ships present patrol wrong the nine-dash line, overwhelming attempts by different claimants to situation Chinese supremacy. In caller years determination person been respective clashes with the overmuch smaller Philippines coastguard successful areas they some claim.

The straight-line borderline connected 1 of the newly-made beaches connected Antelope Reef suggests China whitethorn beryllium gathering different military-grade runway there, akin to those connected Mischief, Fiery Cross and Subi reefs.

But they already person a well-established airstrip adjacent connected Woody Island. Building different successful an country adjacent to the large Chinese subject bases connected Hainan seems superfluous.

Instead, China whitethorn beryllium sending a connection to Vietnam.

Vietnam and China person a past of sparring implicit the South China Sea, oregon the East Sea arsenic Vietnam calls it.

In caller years though, the communist authorities successful Vietnam person dialled down the anti-Chinese rhetoric, and worked hard to physique person relations with Beijing.

Recently-elected president and enactment wide caput To Lam made his archetypal authorities sojourn this twelvemonth to China, wherever some countries referred to their differences implicit the Paracels and Spratlys successful unusually conciliatory language.

Vietnam has formally protested against China's operation connected Antelope Reef, but lone successful restrained, diplomatic terms.

However, retired connected the disputed reefs, Vietnam has gone connected a dredging spree, utilizing the aforesaid almighty cutter suction ships arsenic China.

'If you can't bushed them, articulation them'

Over the past 3 years it has been pumping soil astir astatine slightest 20 reefs and, according to the Washington-based Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative, it has created 11 caller harbours.

It present controls much than 11 sq km of reclaimed land, astir fractional the country that China controls.

It is present starting to physique military-grade infrastructure similar navigation beacons. Vietnam's attack appears to beryllium that if you can't bushed China, past articulation it.

"The Vietnamese person been little consenting to beryllium astatine the forefront of the nationalist relations conflict implicit their disagreements with China," says Greg Poling, who runs the AMTI.

"They're overmuch much comfy letting the Filipinos bash that. But connected the h2o we person seen the Vietnamese being acold much consenting to basal up to Beijing. As a result, the Chinese person mostly backed disconnected from, for example, trying to forestall Vietnamese drilling for lipid and gas."

This is wherefore China is gathering retired Antelope Reef astatine specified a accelerated pace, says Ray Powell, the manager of Sealight, which is based successful Stanford University and monitors the South China Sea.

"Vietnam has been taking vantage of China's absorption connected the Philippines... The reclamation astatine Antelope Reef could beryllium considered arsenic China's answer, reminding Vietnam who the large canine connected the structure is."

So wherever does this permission the remainder of the claimants to the Spratlys?

For the past 30 years the Association of South East Asian Nations, oregon Asean, has tried to negociate a codification of behaviour betwixt China and its 4 subordinate states who are besides claimants.

In 2002 they did hold connected a overmuch weaker declaration but this was not binding, and China has mostly ignored it.

Every twelvemonth astatine the yearly Asean acme leaders committedness to propulsion for an enforceable codification of conduct, but astatine the extremity of each twelvemonth they look nary person to getting it.

In vexation implicit this deficiency of progress, the Philippines took China's actions to the Permanent Court of Arbitration successful The Hague successful 2013.

The tribunal ruled decisively successful favour of the Philippines, concluding that China's claims to sovereignty wrong the nine-dash enactment had nary humanities validity, and that its actions specified arsenic turning reefs into islands violated planetary instrumentality and infringed connected the rights of the Philippines to an exclusive economical portion disconnected its westbound coast.

China has simply ignored that ruling, prompting the Philippines to power to trying to shame Beijing by sending its ain hugely outnumbered coastguard ships to situation the Chinese flotilla. This results successful aggregate clashes, but small alteration successful the unequal equilibrium of power.

The Philippines has besides expanded its subject co-operation with the United States, and sought caller alliances with countries similar Japan and Australia. The US has fixed steadfast diplomatic support, $500m successful subject assistance and supplied immoderate caller equipment.

Together with different allies it periodically sends the US navy done the South China Sea connected Freedom of Navigation Operations arsenic a reminder that these are inactive legally planetary oversea lanes, contempt China's claims. But these missions lone marque a point. They marque small existent difference.

Now the Philippines excessively is gathering up the toeholds it has successful the South China Sea.

It is expanding the runway astatine Pagasa Island, besides known arsenic Thitu, putting a coastguard basal there, and reinforcing the rusting landing trade BRP Sierra Madre which it grounded connected the Second Thomas Shoal successful 1999. It keeps a detachment of soldiers connected committee contempt predominant harassment by Chinese ships.

"Most of the claimants person recognised that they're ne'er going to get to the legally binding papers that the codification of behaviour was ever meant to be," Poling says.

"China conscionable continues to bash immoderate it wants connected the water, eating distant astatine their sovereignty. So what I deliberation you are yet going to spot is simply a non-binding agreement. But possibly that volition unfastened up diplomatic abstraction for Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia and the others to prosecute much effectual negotiations among themselves without having to spell done Asean."

This present appears to beryllium the caller world successful the South China Sea.

It is each state for itself, making the astir of what they already control, accepting that China volition ever beryllium the biggest and astir assertive player.

Graphics by Arvin Supriyadi, Aghnia Adzkia