College football by the odds: Bowl pick'em Part 3

Forget the College Football Playoff.

I might be alone in this, but the traditional bowl games have been much more enjoyable than the teams squaring off for a chance to win the national championship this year.

And, yes, it all comes down to the bowl games so far having been a more profitable endeavor.

There have been some strong starts in the 16-year history of this bowl pick’em column, but none quite like the 8-0 tear that kicked off the 2025-2026 postseason.

Then the CFP had to go and ruin it. Alabama’s 34-24 comeback victory over Oklahoma as 1.5-point underdogs wound up as the column’s first loss, and the only thing that halted a winless opening round of the playoff was a minor miracle.

James Madison sneaking in for a backdoor cover with 65 seconds to play in a 51-34 loss to Oregon as 21.5-point underdogs will be a gambling moment remembered for years to come. Most will look back on it as a bad beat with the majority of the action on the favorite, but I’ll be thankful for the Dukes getting the column off the schneid.

Let’s hope such hallowed institutions like the Rate Bowl and First Responder Bowl can help keeping pushing the record back into a strong territory. Fifteen bowl games are on tap before the College Football Playoff re-commences with the semifinals on New Year’s Eve.

Let’s handicap the point spreads on all of them below. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record picking every game for the season stands at 375-326-15 (107-92-6 on plays, 135-105-4 on leans and 133-129-5 on guesses) after going 3-4 in the last entry.

Sports Bowl at 10 a.m. Friday in Detroit: Central Michigan +10.5 vs. Northwestern, over/under: 43.5. Both teams will employ a run-heavy, clock-draining approach that will make it tough for either side to pull away in big fashion on the scoreboard. Central Michigan carries a more complete roster into the game. It was worth a bet at the opening price of +13.5, but has since moved into a more appropriate territory. Lean: Central Michigan +10.5.

Rate Bowl at 1:30 p.m. Friday in Phoenix: New Mexico +2.5 vs. Minnesota, over/under: 44.5. P.J. Fleck is 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 against the spread in bowl games at Minnesota, but all of those previous teams were far superior to this year’s Golden Gophers. They were fortunate to even get to bowl eligibility courtesy through a 3-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. The motivational edge should be in New Mexico’s favor considering it’s making a surprise bowl appearance in the first year under new coach Jason Eck, but the line needs to touch +3 to get involved. Guess: New Mexico +2.5.

First Responder Bowl at 5 p.m. Friday in Dallas: Florida International +6 vs. UTSA, over/under: 59. It sounds like UTSA couldn’t care less about this game and should have one of the most ravaged rosters of bowl season with more than 20 players missing. FIU covered four games in a row to end the season and might have sneakily been among the most improved teams in the nation. Play: FIU +6.

Military Bowl at 8 a.m. Saturday in Annapolis, Md.: Pittsburgh -9.5 vs. East Carolina, over/under: 57. This line has jumped as much as 4.5 points with news that East Carolina quarterback Katin Houser will opt out along with a handful of other teammates. That might not be enough, though Pittsburgh is also largely a question with a few defections of its own to make this a stay-away matchup. Guess: Pittsburgh -9.5.

Pinstripe Bowl at 9 a.m. Saturday in New York: Penn State +3 vs. Clemson, over/under: 48.5. Penn State put up comparable, and in a few cases better, statistics against a tougher strength of schedule. That might not matter with both teams having experienced an exodus of players, but it’s something to go off of where there’s little else tangible. There should be so much variance in this game that taking the points is the wisest approach. Lean: Penn State +3.

Fenway Bowl at 11:15 a.m. Saturday in Boston: Connecticut +10 vs. Army, over/under: 44. This point spread leapt seven points after UConn coach Jim Mora left for Colorado State and several players entered the transfer portal, but buzz indicates that many of the outgoing starters could still play. Army’s defense has too many holes, especially against the pass where UConn excelled this season, to lay this many points. Lean: Connecticut +10.

Pop-Tarts Bowl at 12:30 p.m. Saturday in Orlando, Fla.: Georgia Tech +4.5 vs. BYU, over/under: 56.5. BYU was the better team already — especially by the end of the year — and kept its full roster intact. Georgia Tech isn’t exactly decimated, but losing offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner to Florida should be a big hurdle in this game. This line looks short. Play: BYU -4.5.

Arizona Bowl at 1:30 p.m. Saturday in Tucson, Ariz.: Miami (Ohio) +6 at Fresno State, over/under: 43. The RedHawks are better by virtually every all-encompassing metric — including expected points added per play, success rate and net yards per play — and their schedule-strength discrepancy might not be as large as perceived with Fresno State’s Mountain West conference struggling through bowl season. Miami (Ohio) will be missing more of its roster, but the love for Fresno State has gone overboard with the spread swelling three points. Lean: Miami (Ohio) +6.

New Mexico Bowl at 2:45 p.m. Saturday in Albuquerque, N.M.: North Texas -3 vs. San Diego State, over/under: 54. Prolific Mean Green quarterback Drew Mestemaker won’t play but, coming into the season, some predicted backup Reese Poffenbarger to win the job over him. There may therefore not be major fall-off especially with North Texas having otherwise kept a large chunk of its roster. The Mean Green figure to maintain their explosiveness, and there are questions if the Aztecs can keep up. Play: North Texas -3.

Gator Bowl at 4:30 p.m. Saturday in Jacksonville, Fla.: Virginia +4.5 vs. Missouri, over/under: 45. Missouri’s roster is significantly weakened, and the betting market arguably hasn’t reacted enough especially after quarterback Beau Pribula’s departure. Freshman backup Matt Zollers looked overmatched in all but one of the four games he played in this season. Play: Virginia +4.5.

Texas Bowl at 6:15 p.m. Saturday in Houston: LSU +3 vs. Houston, over/under: 41.5. LSU will hardly resemble the team that won at Clemson to create unrequited hype to begin the season, but its second string on the depth chart might be more talented than Houston’s starters. Maybe program reputations are overrated, but it’s hard to lay points with a middling Big 12 team against LSU. Lean: LSU +3.

Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Southern -7 vs. Appalachian State, over/under: 59.5. Georgia Southern rates No. 111 in the nation by the SP+ ratings, and its mere inclusion in a bowl game shows what a disappointing season it was in the Sun Belt Conference. But the Eagles handled the Mountaineers easier than the 25-23 final score indicated as 6-point underdogs in Week 11, and now the latter will be down to an emergency quarterback. Lean: Georgia Southern -7.

Independence Bowl: Coastal Carolina +9 vs. Louisiana Tech, over/under: 51.5. The number is spot-on, but Louisiana Tech has a continuity edge in the coaching staff after retaining Sonny Cumbie as opposed to Coastal Carolina, which fired Tim Beck. The Bulldogs’ defense is also the only above-average unit in this game. Guess: Louisiana Tech -9.

Music City Bowl: Tennessee -2.5 vs. Illinois, over/under: 62.5. The market moves here make little sense with Illinois taking enough money to trim a field goal off the spread but the over also getting steamed up a couple points. If this game is shootout — and it probably will be — it’s a major edge to Tennessee even without star receiver Chris Brazzell. Volunteers quarterback Joey Aguilar says he’s playing, and he has enough targets to torch a weak Illini secondary. Play: Tennessee -2.5.

Alamo Bowl: USC -6.5 vs. TCU, over/under: 55. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava will play and that’s big for USC juxtaposed next to TCU, which is losing quarterback Josh Hoover. But who will Maiava throw to with his top three receivers opting out? And the concerns don’t end at the skill positions; TCU has the fuller complement of players at most other positions too. Guess: TCU +6.5.