College football by the odds: Bowl Pick'em against the spread Part 4

A team with a bye in the first round has never won a game in the current iteration of the College Football Playoff.  

Yes, it’s only been one year but still memorable that the No. 1 through No. 4 seeds all lost in last year’s quarterfinals. The trend is highly unlikely to repeat this season, partly because the rules changed and byes were no longer automatically rewarded to conference champions.

While none of the bye teams closed the betting favorite ahead of the 2024-2025 CFP quarterfinals, three of the four are laying a touchdown or more this season. A moneyline parlay on No. 1 seed Indiana, No. 2 seed Ohio State, No. 3 seed Georgia and No. 4 seed Texas Tech all going down over the next two days would pay around 60-to-1.

The implied probability of that happening is that less than 1.5% after adjusting for the house’s hold percentage.    

A parlay on all of them winning, however, would pay less than 5-to-1 with an implied probability of just above 15%.

But could some surprises shake up the championship race?

Read below for my handicaps on all the games along with the final eight bowl games below. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record picking every game for the reason stands at 379-335-16 (110-96-6 on plays, 136-108-8 on leans and 133-131-5 on guesses) after going 2-7-1 in the last entry.            

ReliaQuest Bowl at 9 a.m. Wednesday in Tampa, Fla.:  Vanderbilt -5.5 vs. Iowa, over/under: 46.5. Iowa played a tougher schedule — ranking No. 18 in the nation to Vanderbilt’s No. 26 by ESPN’s FPI — and put up comparable, if not in some cases better, metrics than Vanderbilt. All the betting interest has been on the Commodores, pushing this number up from opening as low as -3.5, but I’ve rated the Hawkeyes as equal or better all season. Play: Iowa +5.5.

Sun Bowl at 11 a.m. Wednesday in El Paso, Texas: Arizona State +3 vs. Duke, over/under: 49.5. The fall-off from Arizona State starting quarterback Sam Leavitt — who’s hurt, in the transfer portal and won’t play — to backup Jeff Sims, who will play in the bowl, is as large of a drop as any team in the nation. Betting against Sims has been a profitable endeavor for six straight years in college football dating back to his days at Georgia Tech during the pandemic, and this should be the last chance. Play: Duke -3.

Citrus Bowl at Noon Wednesday in Orlando: Michigan +7.5 vs. Texas, over/under: 48. Bravo to everyone who jumped on Texas at as low as -5 amid the latest Michigan scandal and resulting upheaval. The Longhorns were playing much better than the Wolverines to end the season anyway, and should win by a touchdown. Paying more than that, however, is a big ask considering Texas has seen a large number of opt-outs itself. Guess: Michigan +7.5.

Las Vegas Bowl at 12:30 Wednesday at Allegiant Stadium: Nebraska +14.5 vs. Utah, over/under: 51. Utah has lost a pair of NFL Draft-bound starting tackles and, of course, coach Kyle Whittingham, who ditched plans to coach the bowl upon taking the head-coaching job at Michigan. The Utes are still superior to the Cornhuskers but the changes must have some negative effect — perhaps more negative than the 2.5 points the betting market docked them for with the news. Guess: Nebraska +14.5.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal/Cotton Bowl at 4:30 p.m. Wednesday in Arlington, Texas: Miami +9.5 vs. Ohio State, over/under: 41.5. These are probably the two most talented rosters left in the final eight of the College Football Playoff. Ohio State stands alone in first, but the gap might not be as large as this point spread indicates. Miami’s star-studded defensive line even should provide a matchup advantage against a relatively average Ohio State offensive front. The total implies a cagey, low-scoring name, and that’s reasonable — meaning it will be hard for either team to pull away in blowout fashion. The best approach is to wait patiently and hope Miami +10 flashes on betting boards again like it did after the first round of the playoffs. Lean: Miami +9.5.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal/Orange Bowl at 9 a.m. Thursday in Miami Gardens, Fla.: Oregon -2 vs. Texas Tech, over/under: 51.5. Oregon rates ahead of Texas Tech by most metrics including expected points added (EPA) per play — No. 4 in the nation for the former to No. 8 for the latter — and net yards per play — No. 1 vs. No. 14 — despite playing a much tougher schedule. Texas Tech might be the boogeyman its dominating final scores illustrate, but before officially crowning it, let’s see it against a better team than BYU. The Red Raiders’ two wins against the Cougars are their best of the year. Oregon has also been among the most injured teams in the nation throughout the year but has now gotten healthy at the right time. The Ducks’ athletes could be too much for the Red Raiders. Lean: Oregon -2.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal/Rose Bowl at 1 p.m. Thursday in Pasadena, Calif.: Alabama +6.5 vs. Indiana, over/under: 48. Name brand value must still matter in the betting market. That’s the only way to explain Indiana not being more than a touchdown favorite over Alabama. The Hoosiers have done nothing but overwhelm opponents week in and week out while the Crimson Tide have been much more up and down with a flawed, unreliable offense. Indiana does have a few injuries to navigate but, overall, it’s a team without any major weaknesses. Alabama has several blemishes by contrast including a nonexistent run game, poor special teams and underperforming trench play. Play: Indiana -6.5.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal/Sugar Bowl at 5 p.m. Thursday in New Orleans: Ole Miss +7 vs. Georgia, over/under: 55.5. Georgia was as low as a 6.5-point favorite over Ole Miss at home in Week 8 and had to rally for a 43-35 victory in the fourth quarter. Ole Miss led 35-26 after the third quarter. Why should the spread be the same, if not a touch higher, shifting from the Bulldogs’ home Sanford Stadium to a neutral site at the Superdome? Ole Miss arguably doesn’t deserve any downgrade from playing without coach Lane Kiffin anymore, not after it proved that was a non-issue with a 41-10 demolition of Tulane as 17-point favorites in the first round. The Bulldogs should win, but not likely in runaway fashion. Play: Ole Miss +7.          

Armed Forces Bowl at 10 a.m. Friday in Fort Worth, Texas: Rice +13 vs. Texas State, over/under: 57.5. Texas State might have quietly been the second-best team in the Sun Belt, and could have even threatened James Madison, but going 0-4 in conference games decided by a touchdown or less doomed it to a disappointing season. Rice was an American Athletic Conference punching bag with a -189 point differential, and only reached a bowl game when there were extra spots to fill after other eligible teams declined invitations. Lean: Texas State -13.

Liberty Bowl at 1:30 p.m. Friday in Memphis, Tenn.: Navy -7 vs. Cincinnati, over/under: 54. Motivation is never a question with service academies in bowl games, and certainly shouldn’t be in this case with Navy wanting to send program legend/leader Blake Horvath out with a victory. Cincinnati’s roster meanwhile is thin after a mass exodus to the transfer portal. Still, it’s best to tread lightly considering the line might be flipped if this matchup had taken place during the regular season. Guess: Navy -7.

Holiday Bowl at 5 p.m. Friday in San Diego: Arizona -3 vs. SMU, over/under: 52. The Mustangs will be without a few players, but quarterback Kevin Jennings importantly announced he would play. SMU’s roster is better overall and both teams’ statistical profiles are too similar — the Mustangs are No. 15 in the nation by EPA per play to the Wildcats’ No. 16 — for a line too far removed from pick’em to make sense. Play: SMU +3.

Duke’s Mayo Bowl at 5 p.m. Friday in Charlotte, N.C.: Wake Forest +3.5 vs. Mississippi State, over/under: 52. Mississippi State has been horrendous against the run all season, ranking 120^th in the nation in giving up 5.1 yards per rush attempt. That should be a shortcoming Wake Forest can exploit considering it’s led by run-first quarterback Robby Ashford. Play: Wake Forest +3.5.