Chiefs are all that stands between Raiders, first overall pick

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver DJ Turner (19) scores a touchdown as Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Christian Roland-Wallace (30) falls beside him during the second half of an NFL football game at Allegiant Stadium Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. Photo by: Wade Vandervort

There’s not a regular-season win the Raiders have wanted more than beating the Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium in the six seasons since they moved into the $2 billion venue.

Las Vegas has gone 0-5 against them in the building owner Mark Davis once described as “the Death Star, where our opponents’ dreams come to die.” Allegiant has been quite the opposite for the Chiefs, who also won Super Bowl 58 over the 49ers there in February 2024.

This year looks like the Raiders’ best chance to send the Chiefs home disappointed but, in a cruel twist of fate, a loss would be better for the long-term prospects of the franchise. The Raiders lock up the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft with a defeat. They could still land in the top position with a win, but it would require help in other games around the NFL.

Raider Nation must be feeling some mixed emotions going into the season finale.

Favorable matchup: Raiders’ tight end vs. Chiefs’ defensive backfield

It’s difficult to say the Raiders did anything particularly well against the Giants, but involving Michael Mayer more in the offense was a bright spot. The former second-round pick had a career-high nine catches on 10 targets for a career-high 89 yards. A number of routes were farther downfield too instead of over the middle near the line of scrimmage, where he’d been primarily utilized this year. That’s where Mayer could threaten the Chiefs, who are playing a mix of primarily backups and practice-squad players in the defensive backfield. The Chiefs have been slightly below average against tight ends all year, ranking No. 16 by the DVOA ratings, and that was mostly with better personnel to utilize. Three different Raiders coaching staffs have talked up Mayer as a potential standout NFL tight end, and last week’s game could be looked back on as the breakout moment he started to live up to the hype.

Problematic matchup: Chiefs’ defensive front seven vs. Raiders’ offense

It’s difficult to say the Chiefs did anything particularly well in an ugly 20-13 loss to Denver last week when they mustered only 139 total yards, but they did hold their own in the trenches defensively. The position groups that remain most intact for the Chiefs are the defensive line and linebackers, and both units showed they weren’t quitting on the season against the Broncos. Linebacker Nick Bolton at and lineman Chris Jones were highly disruptive — with an interception and a pass defensed for the former, and a sack and four quarterback hits for the latter. AFC West champion Denver had its offense trending up coming into the game but mustered only four yards per carry with no rushes of more than 15 yards, and 4.8 yards per pass attempt. Las Vegas has been dominated up front all season, with the offensive line among its biggest issues, and the season looks likely to end in the same way.

Gamebreaker: Quarterback Aidan O’Connell 

The third-year passer who spent stretches of the two previous seasons as the starter will get his first playing time of the year against the Chiefs. Coach Pete Carroll said both O’Connell and Kenny Pickett would play against Kansas City with starter Geno Smith sidelined by an ankle sprain. Pickett will likely take the field first, but he threw for only 64 yards and an interception at Philadelphia in his Week 16 start. O’Connell has shown progress throughout his career and might have a higher upside. He was even outplaying Smith early on in training camp and drew praise from Carroll. But then he struggled in the preseason and broke his wrist. O’Connell has been eligible to play in the past six games, but only in emergency situations as Carroll said Pickett beat him out for the backup role in practice. Pickett is a free agent this offseason while O’Connell has one year left on his rookie contract.

Big number: 14

That’s the average scoring difference in the Chiefs’ five wins at Allegiant Stadium. The cumulative score in the contests is 165-95 Kansas City. The Chiefs had won three straight by double digits before last season when the Raiders led going into the fourth quarter before fizzling out to a 27-20 loss. Then-Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew had one of his best games in silver and black that day — completing 24 of 30 passes for 209 yards and two touchdowns. Minshew signed with the Chiefs this offseason and looked to be in position to start this game after Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL three weeks ago. But then Minshew suffered his own knee injury in his first start for Kansas City, leaving the job to undrafted rookie free agent Chris Oladukon.

Best bet (5-11 on the season): Kenny Pickett under 20.5 completions

This is priced as if Pickett will play the whole game, or at least all but a possession or two. Carroll has been misleading regarding personnel use this season, but his interest in getting O’Connell snaps seems genuine. This bet could also still cash even if Pickett for some reason doesn’t come out. He hasn’t gone over this number since his second season in the NFL. Betting under 170.5 passing yards is also worth consideration, but the Chiefs’ secondary is beaten up enough that it could give up big plays and make completions the safer choice.