Are US and Iran close to peace or sliding back to war?

A ceasefire "hanging by a thread". A diplomatic process "making progress". A president "not satisfied". And explosions echoing astir the Gulf.

What to marque of the current, confusing authorities of relations betwixt the US and Iran - are we adjacent to bid oregon sliding backmost to war?

This week has surely tested the ceasefire, which came into effect connected 8 April and has present lasted considerably longer than the progressive signifier of warring which preceded it.

Iran responded to the latest US strikes - which included what US Central Command (Centcom) described arsenic a "ground power site" successful the confederate Iranian larboard metropolis of Bandar Abbas - with a informing that "aggression volition not spell unanswered".

Its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) then said it had attacked an American aerial base. It did not accidental which, but Centcom aboriginal said a ballistic rocket had been intercepted implicit Kuwait, wherever the US has respective bases.

Echoing Tehran's language, Centcom called the onslaught "an egregious ceasefire violation".

It each sounds ominous, but this is inactive a acold outcry from the furious exchanges that characterised the archetypal five-and-a-half weeks of this conflict. In that time, the US and Israel launched thousands of sorties against targets each crossed Iran, and Tehran responded with volleys of drones and ballistic missiles against US bases, Gulf countries and Israel.

The US said connected Thursday it had changeable down 5 Iranian drones which "posed a menace astir the Strait of Hormuz", suggesting shipping - commercialized oregon subject - was erstwhile again the absorption of concern.

But neither broadside seems to respect the benignant of tit for tat exchanges we person seen this week arsenic marking a instrumentality to all-out war.

All the while, a tortured diplomatic process, involving aggregate actors, is playing retired successful the background.

We get glimpses of that process from clip to time, but they are partial and fleeting.

On Wednesday, Iranian authorities media reported elements of what they described arsenic an unofficial draught of a 14-point memorandum of understanding.

The study included everything Tehran would similar to see: the lifting of Washington's naval blockade of Iranian ports, the withdrawal of US forces from the "vicinity of Iran", and the restoration of non-military postulation done the Strait of Hormuz with Iran and Oman successful power of the absorption and routing of vessels.

Notably absent from the study was immoderate speech of Iranian concessions, particularly connected the all-important atomic issue.

The White House issued a terse statement, calling the purported draught a "complete fabrication". Later, during the latest televised furniture gathering astatine the White House, US President Donald Trump said helium was not yet satisfied with proposals for a deal.

Trump said Iran was "starting to springiness america the things that they person to springiness us". He did not elaborate and repeated his informing that Tehran's nonaccomplishment to comply would trigger a instrumentality to war.

"If they won't, past the antheral connected my near is going to decorativeness them off," helium said, turning to US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth.

There were diagnostic signs of impatience too. Asked astir reports that Iran and Oman mightiness question to power the question of ships done the strait, Trump issued a stark informing to a accepted US ally.

"Oman volition behave conscionable similar everybody else, oregon we'll person to stroke them up," helium said.

Meanwhile, the US Treasury connected Wednesday sanctioned Iran's recently formed "Persian Gulf Strait Authority", acceptable up by Tehran to oversee postulation done the Strait of Hormuz.

The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) called the strategy "a caller effort by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to monetise its run of state-sponsored terror".

As always, Trump was doing his champion to dependable arsenic if the warfare were going to plan, brushing speech immoderate proposition that helium needed to onslaught a woody rapidly to debar further spikes successful the lipid marketplace - oregon governmental blowback astatine November's midterm elections.

But determination is nary denying that helium is successful a bind.

A satisfactory woody remains tantalisingly retired of reach, and determination are immoderate successful his ain enactment - to accidental thing of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - who would similar him to spell backmost to warfare to decorativeness the job.

Similar pressures are astatine play successful Tehran too, wherever immoderate of the country's astir hardline voices are insisting connected maximalist goals, arguing that Iran has shown that it cannot beryllium subjugated.

The diplomatic effort, spearheaded by Pakistan, is immensely complex.

The issues which disagreement the 2 sides are profound: Iran's atomic programme, the aboriginal absorption of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions and unfreezing of assets.

The contiguous nonsubjective - a memorandum which would extremity the warfare and acceptable retired a roadworthy representation for the analyzable diplomatic negotiations that would travel - is proving elusive.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the coming hours oregon days would amusement whether advancement was possible.

For each the home pressures astatine play connected some sides and the febrile ambiance successful and astir the Gulf, neither Iran nor the US seems funny successful a instrumentality to war.

Despite appearances, the ceasefire - present much than 7 weeks aged - is inactive holding.